tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post1829475000866187097..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: The Strange And Mysterious Workings Of Singapore’s Monetary Policyhishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-6175144778695740852013-08-24T19:37:11.500+08:002013-08-24T19:37:11.500+08:00So this is one of the reasons why Singapore curren...So this is one of the reasons why Singapore currency keeps on appreciating over the years. Their government is using it to neutralise the inflation caused by imported goods.<br /><br />Malaysia (like China) of course will not want to do the same. Stronger currency will make our exports more expensive.<br /><br />How interesting. Thanks Hisham for highlighting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-43690923028554504122013-08-23T02:19:50.291+08:002013-08-23T02:19:50.291+08:00Thanks Hishamh, as always for the good explanation...Thanks Hishamh, as always for the good explanation :)Kennyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08707073119562886887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-21402799205733439002013-08-21T00:22:21.878+08:002013-08-21T00:22:21.878+08:00Kenny,
1. I believe there is, though I can't ...Kenny,<br /><br />1. I believe there is, though I can't remember where I saw it. I'll post it if I find it again. IIRC, Malaysia's outflow was about 50/50 between skilled and non-skilled.<br /><br />2. You'd be surprised - palm oil cultivation for example relies heavily on fertilizers, most of which have to be imported. As I recall, fertilizer cost is about a third of total cost hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-77019922420349715482013-08-20T22:49:28.736+08:002013-08-20T22:49:28.736+08:00Hi Hishamh,
Thanks for the explanation.
On the ...Hi Hishamh,<br /><br /><br />Thanks for the explanation.<br /><br />On the brain drain issue, is there any study on the Net brain drain (outflow - inflow), that will be a fairer comparison between Malaysia and Singapore I think. On this issue, we should only take into account of working professionals and executives.<br /><br />On the currency impact to exports, you are right if the outputs are Kennyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08707073119562886887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-90216763286028983502013-08-14T12:51:53.729+08:002013-08-14T12:51:53.729+08:00Just an additional morsel to chew upon:
http://sg...Just an additional morsel to chew upon:<br /><br />http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/breakdown-singapore-banks-danger-horizon-061700993.html<br /><br />Although the report appears rather optimistic about prospects, but a more sanguine view would be in order if they knew what lies ahead.......<br /><br />Warrior 231<br /><br />Warrior 231Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-17300941544449265912013-08-14T12:22:04.648+08:002013-08-14T12:22:04.648+08:00Salam and welcome back. Best Eid Fitr wishes and b...Salam and welcome back. Best Eid Fitr wishes and blessings to you and family.<br /><br />1. You may be right about the Singapig situation given the credit boom and loans growth. Even Nomura is getting cautious:<br /><br />http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/chart-day-heres-proof-singapores-loan-growth-outstripped-nominal-gdp-8-times<br /><br />Besides as the US economy improves, more than one Fed Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-31503682890321359552013-08-13T12:41:06.259+08:002013-08-13T12:41:06.259+08:00Hi Kenny,
For the first part, not that I know of,...Hi Kenny,<br /><br />For the first part, not that I know of, though I haven't been specifically looking for such research. One thing though - Singapore's rate of brain drain is even higher than Malaysia's.<br /><br />For question 2, they haven't and for the most part they don't need to. Neither does Malaysia for that matter.<br /><br />We're all part of the East Asian hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-79783001581013822122013-08-12T17:37:03.944+08:002013-08-12T17:37:03.944+08:00Hi Hishamh,
Besides that impact on inflation in ...Hi Hishamh,<br /><br /><br />Besides that impact on inflation in Singapore, the stronger SGD also helps to attract workers, foreign entities and it also strengthens the capability of Singaporean companies in trade and investment negotiations (eg: Iskandar needing Singapore investments). Is there any research done on these items and its impact to neighbouring countries like Malaysia (for example, Kennyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08707073119562886887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-90693219318281458282013-07-26T00:16:38.281+08:002013-07-26T00:16:38.281+08:00If the short term size of these NDFs does not warr...If the short term size of these NDFs does not warrant any CB forex intervention. <br /><br />Are there any possible long term effects by these naked longs/shorts that may distort market sentiments? If these spoof trades are repeated often enough, do they make people belief that some currencies are more attractive than others? therefore inviting herd of bidding and dumping that are opposite of Yang Oi Munhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08333659459337405276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-72857939611207631952013-07-10T02:11:28.095+08:002013-07-10T02:11:28.095+08:00That's not fair!!
But wishing a safe journey ...That's not fair!!<br /><br />But wishing a safe journey and a wonderful Ramadan to you too.<br /><br />And I cannot resist:<br /><br />1. The link between NDF and onshore markets is not in question, the link between exchange rate and monetary policy <i>in a floating rate regime</i> is.<br /><br />2. Your "vignette" dates back to the 1970s, when Germany was trying to resurrect hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-46324679030781210242013-07-09T23:13:47.449+08:002013-07-09T23:13:47.449+08:004. As for Spork and Balding, nothing will change t...4. As for Spork and Balding, nothing will change the fact they can't even model something simple to debunk Balding. Hence, the conclusion they are hiding something stands unrebutted. As I stress, one needs to see hard data before one can pass judgments not flimsy conjectures based on scanty evidence, secrecy concerns notwithstanding. And Andy Xie, goes unnoticed as well..............du di dumAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-20399613715435704412013-07-09T23:10:43.283+08:002013-07-09T23:10:43.283+08:001.Paper about linkages between NDFs and exchange r...1.Paper about linkages between NDFs and exchange rates? Can’s imagine myself saying that. Thats a new one indeed! All I did was show that there was considerable spillover from NDF to domestic spot/futures marts or vice versa either unidirectionally or bidirectionally. Anyone can then make the linkages between rigging aka rate setting in NDF and exchange rates. Its a no-brainer.<br /> <br />2.I Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-45536935425169372092013-07-09T14:17:42.875+08:002013-07-09T14:17:42.875+08:00BTW, I'm not "defending" Singapore&#...BTW, I'm not "defending" Singapore's honour. What I'm interested in is truth. There <i>are</i> problems with Prof Balding's calculations; and all I'm doing is pointing it out.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-16604771300098569112013-07-09T13:09:04.735+08:002013-07-09T13:09:04.735+08:00warrior,
1. Where in all of these papers, is the ...warrior,<br /><br />1. Where in all of these papers, is the link between exchange rates and monetary policy? It appears to be missing. All of the papers you've linked to show concern over the impact on price discovery in foreign exchange markets, not on the conduct of monetary policy itself, especially in the context of floating exchange rate regimes.<br /><br />2. What is the marginal impacthishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-72190027870616364792013-07-09T11:53:27.862+08:002013-07-09T11:53:27.862+08:001 You wouldn't have countries reproaching the ...1 You wouldn't have countries reproaching the NDF market in Spore if there is no volatility spillover from there and thus no effect on CB policy:<br /><br />http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/ndf-market-distorts-rupiah-exchange-rate-bi/<br /><br />http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/05/07/singapore-ndf-idINDEE9450EJ20130507<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/id/100410762<br /><br />http://Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-28682209929611347932013-07-09T09:31:46.669+08:002013-07-09T09:31:46.669+08:00warrior,
The point you raise is:
1. Off topic; a...warrior,<br /><br />The point you raise is:<br /><br />1. Off topic; and <br />2. Badly overtaken by events.<br /><br />No country in the region operates a fixed exchange regime anymore except for Hong Kong's currency board. Brunei is in a currency union with Singapore, so MAS effectively sets policy there. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines use an explicit inflation targeting framework.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-69583322528101988672013-07-09T07:42:41.176+08:002013-07-09T07:42:41.176+08:00You miss a key point I made in my first post mate,...You miss a key point I made in my first post mate, hence the different animals we are seeing. Retread it again. <br /><br />The point was: Singapig was allowing the NDF mart to wreck the regional economies. <br /><br />The papers I quoted then becomes relevant to the above contention as they ( the papers) clearly imply a link between offshore ( read NDF) and spot rates. Simply put, tweak the NDFAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-44416853557998013992013-07-09T00:45:50.919+08:002013-07-09T00:45:50.919+08:00warrior,
You can read what you want between the l...warrior,<br /><br />You can read what you want between the lines; but I know what I meant to write and I don't see any discrepancies.<br /><br />1. This blog post was intended to outline the mechanisms used in Singapore's monetary policy with reference to Prof Balding's calculations, not to extol the virtues thereof. It's not perfect; in fact there are many flaws, including hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-51853758284769322092013-07-08T22:49:40.554+08:002013-07-08T22:49:40.554+08:00Part 2
Other articles of Interest
1. This paper ...Part 2<br /><br />Other articles of Interest<br /><br />1. This paper for instance look at cross country volatility and implications of Renmimbi NDF trade arsing from trade integration, exchange regimes and financial openness. The findings are again pretty obvious:<br /><br />http://www.uni-hamburg.de/fachbereiche-einrichtungen/fb03/iwwt/makro/colavVolatility.pdf<br /><br /><br />2. This one Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-69659257909847395172013-07-08T22:48:14.664+08:002013-07-08T22:48:14.664+08:001. Weed is of grade 1 quality, dude so no problems...1. Weed is of grade 1 quality, dude so no problems in interpreting the subliminal tone of your article. Reread it again, I need not say more.<br /><br />2. I often wonder why is it sooooo difficult and taking sooooo long for Singaporkians and their apologists cum aficionados to just debunk Balding by simple modelling. I mean what’s stopping them by showing the flaws of his argument via simple Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-45313759594479737622013-07-07T00:49:48.417+08:002013-07-07T00:49:48.417+08:00warrior,
How much weed have you been smoking? How...warrior,<br /><br />How much weed have you been smoking? How did you get from my comment that Singapore's monetary policy is appropriate for pursuit of price stability and growth in the context of its circumstances, to it being an instrument of prosperity?<br /><br />That doesn't necessarily follow, nor do I make the claim that appropriate or not, Singapore's monetary policy approach hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-62292022515180933992013-07-06T13:06:14.096+08:002013-07-06T13:06:14.096+08:00If such a unique aberration spawns prosperity why ...If such a unique aberration spawns prosperity why no one out there is imitating it? That is pretty suggestive of its rottenness. <br /><br />Balding knows as much as anyone else that Spork is a huge Ponzi scheme with a money laundering mechanism, masquerading as a tax haven thingy, wired into the core as a supplement, period. Ask Andy Xie that:<br /><br />http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com