tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post4970475251176046959..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: ICYMI: Economic Growth Over The Very Long Runhishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-49244326102027896212016-10-08T20:24:23.890+08:002016-10-08T20:24:23.890+08:00Acemoglu's idea about the role of institutions...Acemoglu's idea about the role of institutions. Better judicial system rewarding innovation and punishing infringement. Central bank independence. Independent corruption board. Transparent industrial policy. Allow inefficient firms to die rather than perpetually propping them up. There are many we can do. Not sure if we or anyone can do it.anonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04865939653798938447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-16643629572612373562016-10-07T13:54:32.845+08:002016-10-07T13:54:32.845+08:00Thank you! much appreciated. Thank you! much appreciated. Arasanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16266673005648352854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-26133412458752175592016-10-07T11:30:55.030+08:002016-10-07T11:30:55.030+08:00@Tamilarasan
The Maddison Project:
http://www.gg...@Tamilarasan<br /><br />The Maddison Project:<br /><br />http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm<br /><br />There are a couple of other datasets publicly available I think, with roughly similar numbers.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-56546614126341547202016-10-06T13:52:41.831+08:002016-10-06T13:52:41.831+08:00Just wondering what is the source for the Global E...Just wondering what is the source for the Global Economy for the period from 1AD to 1700AD? Tamilarasannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-45501013781702979502016-10-04T21:55:02.327+08:002016-10-04T21:55:02.327+08:00Thx for your input! Another learning day for meThx for your input! Another learning day for mestress_unpluggedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07033143044419535368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-91591818101498348032016-10-04T18:31:23.631+08:002016-10-04T18:31:23.631+08:00@stress_unplugged
1. I think GDP per capita is a ...@stress_unplugged<br /><br />1. I think GDP per capita is a better metric, but even that has problems. There is an ongoing search for better measurements of human welfare, but no consensus has emerged yet. I agree though, we shouldn't be too hung up on growth.<br /><br />2. It sounds like BS. To me, since exchange rates are relative and not absolute prices and given the herd behaviour of hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-50975188456825901892016-10-04T09:54:04.915+08:002016-10-04T09:54:04.915+08:002 questions:
1) "As society ages, growth decl...2 questions:<br />1) "As society ages, growth declines". This is one of the key take away I got after reading your article. If that is the case, I wonder why people all over i.e governments, central banks are hung up on growth? If headline growth is flattish, but standard of living is increasing, do you think we should find another way of quantifying standard of living?<br />2) This is stress_unpluggedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07033143044419535368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-91195980757594334672016-09-26T23:46:09.151+08:002016-09-26T23:46:09.151+08:00@hishamh
Thanks man! Will check 'em out :)@hishamh <br /><br />Thanks man! Will check 'em out :) A. R. B. Azman Shahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07103647406246223628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-77512236681497092702016-09-26T19:56:08.600+08:002016-09-26T19:56:08.600+08:00I'm supposed to be ok with declining stock mar...I'm supposed to be ok with declining stock market, deflation... etc., but when I think deeper, that will translate to low/no growth on my EPF money. It's psychologically disturbing, although the net effect of purchasing power is actually neutralised.Fungnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-3497004341660787562016-09-26T17:46:30.651+08:002016-09-26T17:46:30.651+08:00@Rahman
One recent research:
http://www.wsj.com/...@Rahman<br /><br />One recent research:<br /><br />http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-economy-aging-population-poses-double-whammy-1470249965<br /><br />Roubini has a good summary of the thoughts on the current productivity slowdown:<br /><br />https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/productivity-paradox-explanations-populism-by-nouriel-roubini-2016-06<br /><br />On the market reaction, I thinkhishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-27631549487752397942016-09-26T17:18:48.431+08:002016-09-26T17:18:48.431+08:00@hishamh
Ah I see. Looks like I have to go off an...@hishamh<br /><br />Ah I see. Looks like I have to go off and read a few papers about the empirics of TFP :) <br /><br />It's interesting you say that about technology, living standards, and GDP growth. It really echoes what Solow says about the IT revolution showing up everywhere except the statistics. <br /><br />About market reactions, I reckon intuitively that its because a smaller marketA. R. B. Azman Shahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07103647406246223628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-25865021932458832092016-09-26T16:21:58.005+08:002016-09-26T16:21:58.005+08:00@Fung
My wife is a Professor at UKM, currently al...@Fung<br /><br />My wife is a Professor at UKM, currently also a Deputy Director at their Centre for Learning and Teaching Technologies. Basically trying to get UKM out of the stone age.<br /><br />As far as what metric to use, I think "instead of" rather than "also".<br /><br />In any case, when we talk about GDP per capita, we are essentially talking about productivity hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-64679739944643241782016-09-26T14:27:45.921+08:002016-09-26T14:27:45.921+08:00Hisham,
TQ for your comment. Just curious, what d...Hisham,<br /><br />TQ for your comment. Just curious, what does your wife do? Teacher?<br /><br />Yes, Warren Buffett (my idol) has been talking more about GDP per capita growth than GDP growth itself, which I think makes more sense from individual point of view. After all, our objective is to live a better life ourselves regardless of the overall macroeconomic progress.<br /><br />But your Fungnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-68151357031785044012016-09-26T14:10:17.342+08:002016-09-26T14:10:17.342+08:00@ahmad afandi
One of the reasons why I started lo...@ahmad afandi<br /><br />One of the reasons why I started looking at this issue earlier this year, was when I saw this set of charts:<br /><br />https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth/#recent-history-and-projections<br /><br />Any single country can buffer population decline by opening borders to immigration. But this cannot be a solution for all, unless we can get Martians and hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-58063632828849743482016-09-26T14:01:58.439+08:002016-09-26T14:01:58.439+08:00@Henry
Financial literacy is being implemented as...@Henry<br /><br />Financial literacy is being implemented as part of the school curriculum. I'm not hopeful of the results though. But that's a topic for another day.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-28984354596219096842016-09-26T14:00:35.718+08:002016-09-26T14:00:35.718+08:00@roger dodger
I agree. The costs and effort in ra...@roger dodger<br /><br />I agree. The costs and effort in raising children is probably under-emphasised as a factor in reducing fertility. Childbirth alone is an already expensive undertaking.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-38505462928090162072016-09-26T13:57:45.787+08:002016-09-26T13:57:45.787+08:00@anon
And here I though I was arguing the opposit...@anon<br /><br />And here I though I was arguing the opposite - we will run out of growth, because there won't be enough mouths to feed and hands to work.<br /><br />Note that the Malay fertility rate is actually just a hair above replacement level, and is dropping just as fast as the Chinese or Indians. I see no reason to celebrate here.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-5810141884029484782016-09-26T13:35:26.809+08:002016-09-26T13:35:26.809+08:00@Muhammed,
My thoughts on your Qs:
1. Not necess...@Muhammed,<br /><br />My thoughts on your Qs:<br /><br />1. Not necessarily. Older people tend to be more conservative. The UK's Brexit referendum is a good example.<br /><br />2. What I see is that living standards will continue to grow, but overall growth will not. It's as much a perspective problem as anything else. My preference would be to track GDP per capita growth, not GDP growth.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-15394655358373055772016-09-26T10:27:23.920+08:002016-09-26T10:27:23.920+08:00@Rahman
Technically you are correct. Empirically,...@Rahman<br /><br />Technically you are correct. Empirically, what's happening is sort of the opposite. As populations age, TFP growth is declining.<br /><br />Intuitively, population decline implies a contraction in market size. That means less incentive to increase capacity (AKA investment).<br /><br />The technology aspect is quite interesting and controversial. My personal view is that it&hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-8653974105710197272016-09-26T10:14:24.000+08:002016-09-26T10:14:24.000+08:00@Jason
Woah, a bit too much philosophy from me.
...@Jason<br /><br />Woah, a bit too much philosophy from me.<br /><br />Just a few notes:<br /><br />1. Income and fertility are being delinked. Fertility is dropping even in poor countries. I think availability of medical technology and drugs are reducing child mortality, which reduces the drive for reproduction to pass on your genes.<br /><br />2. On Malthus, you've got me backward. I'm hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-63625007315958095372016-09-26T09:50:52.799+08:002016-09-26T09:50:52.799+08:00@Fung
I agree with most of your points, especiall...@Fung<br /><br />I agree with most of your points, especially point 4 (given what my wife does).<br /><br />On point 5, I absolutely agree, but just to illustrate what might happen: <br /><br />Japan's per capita growth is actually better than Europe, and not much less than the US. Yet headline growth has effectively been zero.<br /><br />So it's not necessarily impossible to have both hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-75194741664792196082016-09-24T23:34:40.726+08:002016-09-24T23:34:40.726+08:00I think it is very myopic to be bound by a very we...I think it is very myopic to be bound by a very westphalian frame of mind. The world population is still growing it just that it is happening in the developing and least developed countries. Thefore the most dinamic and productive member of the world population will be in these countries and so will the future world economic growth is. A dinamic and open imigration policy to encourage freedom of Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14065171951042028669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-77188087966019998752016-09-23T13:13:06.315+08:002016-09-23T13:13:06.315+08:00I'm not well verse with economic models and th...I'm not well verse with economic models and theories but thanks for the insightful article with a view of global perspective! I have seen similar article that saying Malaysia will become aging nation by 2035 according to statistics. <br /><br />I do agree with Roger. With the sky rocketing in cost of living, raising a children costs a lot more than ever. But of course, the culture has changedHenry Tanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11927168352621516247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-91328925845838873772016-09-23T12:25:49.434+08:002016-09-23T12:25:49.434+08:00On fertility, I disagree with the notion that it i...On fertility, I disagree with the notion that it is purely a human choice. The economic pressure on raising a child is very real and is very influential for couples in deciding how many children they will have. Advances in family planning have only empowered them further in making the choice. It does turn it into a more hard-nosed cost-benefit analysis but the pressure to do so is very real and roger dodgerhttp://roger.dodger.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-65086381344959343532016-09-22T16:58:14.625+08:002016-09-22T16:58:14.625+08:00You know what you are selling? That more mouths me...You know what you are selling? That more mouths means more growth from more demand and supply.<br /><br />That's great because it means the welcome growth is sufficient reason to end the NEP/NDP since our Malays are the fastest growing race in this country.<br /><br />And then you end by saying oh god you wish you are wrong!<br /><br />Make up your mind finally, man.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com