tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post6254624734161328873..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: BNM Watch: No Change, And Don’t Expect Anyhishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-46514717707735619142015-05-29T18:38:10.295+08:002015-05-29T18:38:10.295+08:00@Warrior
1. In "real terms"?
Take two ...@Warrior<br /><br />1. In "real terms"?<br /><br />Take two balls and drop them. Ball 1 drops 10cm, ball 2 drops 6in. Which one falls further?<br /><br />2. I think the right historical period of comparison should be the late 1970s to the early 1980s, which saw a similar crash in commodity prices.<br /><br />3. The NBER paper is absolutely right. One could (and should) say the same hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-28718274513303334382015-05-21T15:10:21.938+08:002015-05-21T15:10:21.938+08:00@Warrior,
Sorry for the late reply. Today's t...@Warrior,<br /><br />Sorry for the late reply. Today's the first day this week I've actually had a chance to sit down.<br /><br />1. As I think I've stated before, fundamental based models don't always do a good job - note for instance the last three paragraphs of the Aussie link you gave:<br /><br />http://business.nab.com.au/hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-23720317980805190992015-05-14T10:22:46.993+08:002015-05-14T10:22:46.993+08:00@Warrior
For some reason, Blogger thinks you'...@Warrior<br /><br />For some reason, Blogger thinks you're a spammer. Sorry, nothing I can do about that one.<br /><br />On the your quesries:<br /><br />1. About right I think<br /><br />2. The extent of overshooting tends to be correlated to the degree of resistance to market adjustments. Contrast for example what happened to the Russian Rouble relative to other oil producers with floating hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-47080591808322416752015-05-13T07:06:27.998+08:002015-05-13T07:06:27.998+08:00Note: Third time putting this up. Means I am banne...Note: Third time putting this up. Means I am banned from this blog?<br /><br />Hi dude, Here are some interesting questions to ponder and respond to. A paisa for your thoughts…hahahaha:<br /><br />Q1 : At Brent price US$ 52 FV for MYR is set at 3.51 as per your comments. At Brent US$ 64 (today’s price) FV for MYR should be in the late 3.30s or early 40s right, given the US$12 premium for Brent?<Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-1759662032220079282015-05-08T16:17:26.181+08:002015-05-08T16:17:26.181+08:00Something else for your amusement:
http://en.wiki...Something else for your amusement:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege<br /><br />http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/an_exorbitant_privilegehishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-72587344876569982872015-05-08T15:29:04.100+08:002015-05-08T15:29:04.100+08:00There are nefarious interests who are conspiring t...There are nefarious interests who are conspiring to keep the Ringgit well-shorted and depressed, regardless of "fundamentals".<br /><br />Now, who has the firepower and the muscle to be able to engineer and sustain this?<br /><br />No prizes for the right answer, though!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-83323852623360677962015-05-08T14:49:10.616+08:002015-05-08T14:49:10.616+08:00You might also want to refer to this:
http://en.w...You might also want to refer to this:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overshooting_model<br /><br />and some additional reading:<br /><br />http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/staffp/2001/00-00/pdf/kr.pdf<br /><br />http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/API120/ls/L20MonModelExR-RD.pdf<br /><br />Ironically, I had to explain this model to someone this morning.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-29579677375539282392015-05-08T12:27:40.450+08:002015-05-08T12:27:40.450+08:00@Warrior
Dude, really, for some one who's as ...@Warrior<br /><br />Dude, really, for some one who's as well read as you are, you've somehow missed on this particular topic.<br /><br />Deviations between market value and fuindamental valuation of the exchange rate are the <i>norm</i>, not the exception. <br /><br />Nobody, and I mean nobody, has come up with a really satisfactory model of how exchange rates move, or how fundamentals (hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-57895576976152965842015-05-08T11:09:17.028+08:002015-05-08T11:09:17.028+08:00Just wondering dude...sometime around Feb 2 in res...Just wondering dude...sometime around Feb 2 in response to my MYR "rigging" claim, in your riposte you penned this:<br /><br />"Oh BTW, at current Brent prices, we've pegged short term fair value for USDMYR at RM3.52. Interest parity model puts it at RM3.45 as at end January. In many ways, this is really a sell down based on fundamentals."<br /><br />At that time Brent wasAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com