tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post6536229905947503684..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: Indicators For The Economy: Leads, Lags, and Coincidencehishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-31797931804303664102009-05-12T00:22:00.000+08:002009-05-12T00:22:00.000+08:00Interesting theory - unfortunately not something w...Interesting theory - unfortunately not something we can check for Malaysian data as yet. The index series just don't go back far enough to test that hypothesis. I've just gotten data on these indexes from 1999, but that means testing based on just two business cycles, which isn't sufficient.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-68315769448547869042009-05-09T09:08:00.000+08:002009-05-09T09:08:00.000+08:00Hi Hishamh,
Thx for your insights.
On 3, the book...Hi Hishamh,<br /><br />Thx for your insights.<br />On 3, the book that I mention is “The Atlas of Economic Indicators” by W. Stansbury Carnes and Stephen D. Slifer. It may be a book more for layman like me. Wonder whether its points are “correct”.<br />Pg. 139 under short paragraph of : “the ratio of coincident to lagging indicator may be the best leading indicator of all”. It says this is due toWYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00687384573537625332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-40788991122420216752009-05-09T01:00:00.000+08:002009-05-09T01:00:00.000+08:001. It would have to be BNM - fiscal policy works t...1. It would have to be BNM - fiscal policy works too slowly. As far as which index, TBH I don't know for sure, but if I have to guess it would be the coincident and leading indexes.<br /><br />2. The way I constructed this evaluation, it's hard to tell the lag structure. To figure that out I'd have to decompose GDP into monthly frequencies - not something I've studied yet. I'll revisit this topichishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-78741882053994863522009-05-08T18:47:00.000+08:002009-05-08T18:47:00.000+08:00Hi Hishamh,
Some questions, hope you can enlighte...Hi Hishamh,<br /><br />Some questions, hope you can enlighten me on:<br />1. Which indicator (lagging, coincident, or leading) that the government (maybe BNM) looks at before taking action on policy changes ?<br /><br />2. Is it possible to tell how long is the lead for leading indicator, lag for lagging indicator ? Is the coincident indicator really coincident or with some lead or lag ?<br /><brWYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00687384573537625332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-9128426424801262072009-05-02T19:17:00.000+08:002009-05-02T19:17:00.000+08:00Thanks bro, my pleasure.Thanks bro, my pleasure.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-29410439751101111612009-05-02T17:01:00.000+08:002009-05-02T17:01:00.000+08:00bro hishamh
Most enlightening. We are learning mu...bro hishamh<br /><br />Most enlightening. We are learning much from you. Keep up the first-class work, bro.de minimishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06478671079348612565noreply@blogger.com