tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post8288134712113560884..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: Ringgit Fallacies: Imported Inflation and International Reserveshishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-51823687023484571862015-09-03T09:22:19.486+08:002015-09-03T09:22:19.486+08:00@anon
This article suggests the impact will large...@anon<br /><br /><a href="http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/09/02/CIDB-sees-minimal-impact-of-weak-ringgit-on-rail-devt-projects/?style=biz&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter" rel="nofollow">This article</a> suggests the impact will largely be minimal. In any case, all complex materials are composed of more basic raw materials. The impact of exchange rate movements hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-69861718724204539162015-08-25T21:12:21.890+08:002015-08-25T21:12:21.890+08:00Typed the previous message in a fly, notice severa...Typed the previous message in a fly, notice several sentence structure errors, sorry for that. <br /><br />Also an interesting point to note, I said economists don't have a monopoly in economic knowledge, because the Nobel prize in Economics, the highest honor in economic science, has previously been awarded to political scientists and even psychologists. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-13321771845212864732015-08-25T21:08:04.860+08:002015-08-25T21:08:04.860+08:00Saw the BCI index, I am not familiar with this ind...Saw the BCI index, I am not familiar with this indicator, but the immediate question that comes to my mind is how much of the materials listed in the list are actually sourced internationally. Also, raw materials are not the only costs that goes into building high tech, I would wager that a lot of specialised parts like cables and engines go into the construction, and these costs will definitely Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-25130735112640892082015-08-19T03:29:51.842+08:002015-08-19T03:29:51.842+08:00Why the bias towards a lower interest rate?
Base...Why the bias towards a lower interest rate? <br /><br />Based on our current Governor previous tendency, theres a high chance that she'll be keeping it steady. No?Rijal Ishakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06785365196260988663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-59836019323637150882015-08-13T23:36:50.100+08:002015-08-13T23:36:50.100+08:00@Sam
Probably negative, but not as much as people...@Sam<br /><br />Probably negative, but not as much as people think. Real money investors will still buy Malaysian bonds.<br /><br />As far as the OPR is concerned, I'd think the bias would be more towards easing than raising interest rates.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-21829330869630988302015-08-13T23:34:41.083+08:002015-08-13T23:34:41.083+08:00@anon 5.11
On the SGD, please read this.
As far ...@anon 5.11<br /><br />On the SGD, please read <a href="http://econsmalaysia.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-facts-of-life-singapores-monetary.html" rel="nofollow">this</a>.<br /><br />As far as the USD is concerned, the exchange rate isn't really that big of a factor in determining relative living standards. Despite the long term drop in the Ringgit's value, Malaysians are steadily gaining on UShishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-27171457877320629222015-08-13T23:30:01.551+08:002015-08-13T23:30:01.551+08:00@anon 1.22
That only benefits those who keep thei...@anon 1.22<br /><br />That only benefits those who keep their jobs, and will be biased towards the upper end of the income distribution. All three (GST, petrol, EPF contributions) are primarily paid by those in the upper half of the labour force.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-36466195798913777382015-08-13T23:15:56.358+08:002015-08-13T23:15:56.358+08:00@Lizarazu
Just been discussing that this morning....@Lizarazu<br /><br />Just been discussing that this morning. None of the technical indicators will work, because we're literally in uncharted territory. My guess would be above RM4.20, but it might never get that far.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-192481984860829132015-08-13T21:07:59.562+08:002015-08-13T21:07:59.562+08:00Hi Hishamh,
A few MGS are also maturing end Septem...Hi Hishamh,<br />A few MGS are also maturing end September. And most of them are foreign holders. What impact do you think if would affect the MYR. <br />Do you also think BNM would raise rate too?<br />ThanksSamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-49499791559565860232015-08-13T18:54:06.021+08:002015-08-13T18:54:06.021+08:00And surprisingly i think our gst rate wont reduced...And surprisingly i think our gst rate wont reduced as the deflator for the next 5 years is at 3%, compared to the 2% deflator for the past 5 years.Group 8https://www.blogger.com/profile/00896095858032211954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-61222528822533113742015-08-13T18:50:50.900+08:002015-08-13T18:50:50.900+08:00"The only point when intervention will be eff..."The only point when intervention will be effective is when the currency is close to the bottom."<br /><br />Hishamh, whats the bottom level of ringgit? Lizarazunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-47541377298014241532015-08-13T17:11:22.632+08:002015-08-13T17:11:22.632+08:00hi hishamh i really appreciate your thoughts.
can...hi hishamh i really appreciate your thoughts.<br /><br />can we let's forget politics for a while. what do you think of the very long term depreciation of the ringgit against let's say the SGD, the USD and so on and the sentiment that this generation can't afford to buy their own houses, cars etc? is that consistent with your view that the long term weakness in ringgit doesn't Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-42417070459838693022015-08-13T13:22:35.844+08:002015-08-13T13:22:35.844+08:00We can reduce the gst rate lower
fix the pump pe...We can reduce the gst rate lower <br />fix the pump petrol price <br />reduce employee epf contribution to boost domestic consumption...money to defend the exchange rate will be better used.. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-8392745795327375852015-08-13T11:34:02.919+08:002015-08-13T11:34:02.919+08:00Which in turn protects consumer purchasing power i...Which in turn protects consumer purchasing power in the long run, methinks!The Slughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00409001851961756546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-16089824206427812492015-08-13T10:37:45.157+08:002015-08-13T10:37:45.157+08:00Anon 9.01 pm,
I've never said investment bank...Anon 9.01 pm,<br /><br />I've never said investment bankers know economics. I'm just sharing their opinion on Hisham's article. So you have Hisham view as analyst where I can also compare this with investment bankers view.<br /><br />Anyway, thanks hisham for the reply. Really appreciate it. <br /><br />Mohamed Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-79034434939692066852015-08-13T09:39:03.678+08:002015-08-13T09:39:03.678+08:00@einnos
Oh, I should add that some vendors have b...@einnos<br /><br />Oh, I should add that some vendors have been taking advantage of the situation to profiteer. I would suggest reporting them to KPDNKK.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-21875577310743913002015-08-13T09:37:49.336+08:002015-08-13T09:37:49.336+08:00@einnos
If you look at the detailed price statist...@einnos<br /><br />If you look at the detailed price statistics (both imports and consumer prices), food and beverage prices (both domestic and imported) are going up, but this was true even before the Ringgit's depreciation. This has more to do with the changing demand/supply situation in global markets than with exchange rate movements.<br /><br />I honestly can't remember when was the hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-30611490878864721672015-08-13T09:30:48.191+08:002015-08-13T09:30:48.191+08:00@Anon 8.13
Sir, this text book economist thinks p...@Anon 8.13<br /><br />Sir, this text book economist thinks protecting domestic jobs and incomes is more important than protecting consumer purchasing power.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-84721832486040879122015-08-13T09:29:18.462+08:002015-08-13T09:29:18.462+08:00@Group 8
That's exactly what the data I showe...@Group 8<br /><br />That's exactly what the data I showed above is indicating - Ringgit depreciation is not having an impact on import prices.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-55148714215023549272015-08-13T09:28:11.831+08:002015-08-13T09:28:11.831+08:00@Living Seed
Doubt it. The impact of commodity pr...@Living Seed<br /><br />Doubt it. The impact of commodity prices will be felt across the whole economy, not just the government. GST won't change the income mix for anybody else.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-79438351303357748142015-08-13T09:26:44.251+08:002015-08-13T09:26:44.251+08:00@Mohamed
A couple of points here:
1. Given that ...@Mohamed<br /><br />A couple of points here:<br /><br />1. Given that import prices have not moved, the proposition that projects will become more expensive is likely mistaken. In fact, if you look at the costs of building materials, they are down quite substantially from a few years ago. On a year to year basis, DOS produces <a href="https://www.statistics.gov.my/index.php?r=column/cthemeByCat&hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-64343504229908895922015-08-13T09:24:23.053+08:002015-08-13T09:24:23.053+08:00Still does not explain why a Sunglo yogurt drink p...Still does not explain why a Sunglo yogurt drink price increased from RM7 in 2014 to RM10 today.<br /><br />Maybe you are more expert than theStar in economics. See front page of today's Star, 13th Aug 2015.einnoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11871651891788009908noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-58997009776811851982015-08-13T09:14:42.920+08:002015-08-13T09:14:42.920+08:00@Stephen
1. Political uncertainties played NO par...@Stephen<br /><br />1. Political uncertainties played NO part in the initial stages of the Ringgit's depreciation. The trend began in July 2014 with the decline in Brent and WTI prices. 1MDB did not come into the picture until February 2015, and the WSJ article was in June.<br /><br />2. Fundamental based valuation would be very different from what I've done here, but it would also be hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-77995569819666776482015-08-13T09:11:24.429+08:002015-08-13T09:11:24.429+08:00Well am afraid he's not. The impact of consume...Well am afraid he's not. The impact of consumer prices is minimal. If anything, it would have been for the GST, the 'wave' just got started.Lizarazunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-71392845881564611472015-08-13T09:09:14.652+08:002015-08-13T09:09:14.652+08:00@dukuhead
It's not easy to short the Ringgit ...@dukuhead<br /><br />It's not easy to short the Ringgit these days, because all you have is the NDF market in Singapore (you can't do it onshore).<br /><br />Also, it's not the Ringgit that's being targeted. Most currencies are down vis-a-vis the USD.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.com