tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post8433652242090468224..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: Market Psychologyhishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-4678838904186011582015-09-23T10:04:45.687+08:002015-09-23T10:04:45.687+08:00Great to know that you are the epicenter of this h...Great to know that you are the epicenter of this holy day.<br /><br />Take care dude, and yes seek your forgiveness too for my faults whether in seriousness or in jest.And yes on my part, everything is sincerely forgiven and forgotten if any. May Allah blest you and yours with a mabrur Haj, inshaAllah and shower His infinite Mercy on us all. <br /><br />Keep safe and take care mate.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-24222648423260100912015-09-23T09:55:07.468+08:002015-09-23T09:55:07.468+08:00I don't think I ever mentioned QE and hyperinf...I don't think I ever mentioned QE and hyperinflation in the same breathe, dude? Been downing too many Don Perignons lately, man.....hahaha <br /><br />Be that (QE and hyperinflation) as it maybe, I have a theory as to why inflation didn't take off despite tightening labour markets.Perversely, dirty ol' QE has a role to play and much of what I am about to say is related to Part 1, PartAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-48476438286331428672015-09-23T09:54:55.821+08:002015-09-23T09:54:55.821+08:00@Warrior
Very interesting. Probably very wrong, b...@Warrior<br /><br />Very interesting. Probably very wrong, but interesting nonetheless.<br /><br />But I'll look at it later, as there are more important things at hand.<br /><br />On this blessed day, I greet you brother from Mina, and ask forgiveness for all my wrongs and sins against you, whether in seriousness or in jest. May Allah swt show us His infinite mercy.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-84390915810630377622015-09-23T09:21:57.490+08:002015-09-23T09:21:57.490+08:00This should be Part 1 (as usual went missing)
Par...This should be Part 1 (as usual went missing)<br /><br />Part 1<br /><br />The crux of my contention that QE induces wage growth stagnation rests on the following theoretical model as espoused by Palley. The key points being the following:<br /><br />1. “On the demand side the model is expanded to include the effect of real wages and income shares as follows:<br /><br />y = D(y, w/p, sw, sp, sc, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-91079763727857970142015-09-11T15:06:45.429+08:002015-09-11T15:06:45.429+08:001. CBs: Thanks for the article dude. Shows how det...1. CBs: Thanks for the article dude. Shows how detached CBs can be from the mainstream.<br /><br />2. QE- wages : err...ummm.......QE ...wages.....gulp....chomped off more than I can chew? Nah...just be patient,it will be up....<br /><br />3. MIDF, CRAs and Brazil: In the meantime I was struck by how fickle minded financial analysts,economists can be:<br /><br />"Could the worst be over for Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-1712320324153545402015-09-11T10:41:10.320+08:002015-09-11T10:41:10.320+08:00@Warrior
Read it. Not exactly surprised. Actually...@Warrior<br /><br />Read it. Not exactly surprised. Actually, most central bankers know already, for example this series from the Atlanta Fed:<br /><br />http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2015/01/gauging-inflation-expectations-with-surveys-part-1-the-perspective-of-firms.html<br /><br />http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2015/01/hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-33455017749933494702015-09-11T10:32:24.749+08:002015-09-11T10:32:24.749+08:00@Warrior
1. Still waiting patiently for your evid...@Warrior<br /><br />1. Still waiting patiently for your evidence that QE causes low wage growth. Just sat through a presentation yesterday on US prospects - much of the current poor wage growth is actually due to demographic changes (much as in Japan in the 1990s).<br /><br />2. Not really a contradiction - most analysts are expecting short term weakness before a recovery in the exchange rate at hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-41040123287580631302015-09-11T01:27:02.245+08:002015-09-11T01:27:02.245+08:00Oh yeah....I just read this. Hope you like it espe...Oh yeah....I just read this. Hope you like it especially the last paragraph:<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/this-new-study-questions-a-key-assumption-central-bankers-make-about-themselves<br /><br />Warrior 231Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-12699753298396048442015-09-11T01:15:36.256+08:002015-09-11T01:15:36.256+08:00Erm....getting cocky eh kiddo?. Well I almost dint...Erm....getting cocky eh kiddo?. Well I almost dint want to link anything from that rag (wink wink), dude but on second thoughts reflections and repentance are better voiced via the horse's mouth:<br /><br />http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303763804579183680751473884<br /><br />the whole mea culpa is bleeding with choice sirloin cuts and it was difficult to pick a winner, but I Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-70986438887592863532015-09-10T09:55:55.788+08:002015-09-10T09:55:55.788+08:00@Warrior
1. As I recall, in Weimar Germany inflat...@Warrior<br /><br />1. As I recall, in Weimar Germany inflation began accelerating almost immediately, as it did in post WWII Japan (and post WWII Germany for that matter). Since you seem to think QE and money printing are the same thing, you have a bit of a methodological paradox here boyo.<br /><br />2. Ironically, I was with MIDF on Monday. You might want to refer to my <a href="http://hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-11783829171306902132015-09-09T19:21:11.851+08:002015-09-09T19:21:11.851+08:00All things being equal, that is what excessive eas...All things being equal, that is what excessive easing should do in the long run, as what happened previously in japan and the weimar germany in those prewar days.<br /><br />But then again, those were in the pre bretton woods gold standard era, you might say and today's scenario is unique. But I will respond in due course, rest assured.<br /><br />2. LOL........long stretch....sez who, dude?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-33846748399341433392015-09-09T11:50:00.120+08:002015-09-09T11:50:00.120+08:00@Warrior
I seem to recall a certain someone claim...@Warrior<br /><br />I seem to recall a certain someone claiming that QE always results in hyperinflation. Wasn't you was it? :)<br /><br />In any case, I think saying QE causes low wage growth is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc" rel="nofollow">a long stretch</a>.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-5184783818989925192015-09-04T16:56:50.737+08:002015-09-04T16:56:50.737+08:00Part 2
And look at Yank wage growth as well, here...Part 2<br /><br />And look at Yank wage growth as well, here:<br /><br />http://www.epi.org/blog/watch-jobs-day-longer-jobless-recovery-undoubtedly/<br /><br />so they are next in line to get into their Japan lost decades as the Euro have just done….hahaha:<br /><br />http://www.rttnews.com/2548432/ecb-cuts-growth-inflation-forecasts-as-it-stands-ready-to-extend-qe.aspx?google_editors_picks=true<Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-26368063380201524442015-09-03T14:01:20.861+08:002015-09-03T14:01:20.861+08:00Hi
Wonder what happened to part 1?
warrior 231Hi<br /><br />Wonder what happened to part 1?<br /><br />warrior 231Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-42824933605031566702015-09-03T13:57:42.756+08:002015-09-03T13:57:42.756+08:00Part 2
And @Zuo De, (you beat me to it, man) that...Part 2<br /><br />And @Zuo De, (you beat me to it, man) that is what Dr Zeti was saying- the disconnect between finance and the real economy:<br /><br />http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1541466<br /><br />Shuffling financial instruments, assets, speculation etc can only get you so far especially with plenty of QE money sloshing around....but eventually, the whole scheme will run out of delusions Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-4626812680509401982015-09-03T12:13:46.968+08:002015-09-03T12:13:46.968+08:00Afternoon all, trust all is well to you all,
Sorr...Afternoon all, trust all is well to you all,<br /><br />Sorry to read about our friend from Singapore is facing the big C. Hope your operation is a success.<br /><br />Just read TS Zeti speech http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1541466<br /><br />TS Zeti indeed is on the spot.<br /><br />I am of the opinion that there is now a big disconnect between the real value of ringgit vs usd, sgd aud etc.<br /Zuo Dehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01581657028981206208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-42446003235312345992015-09-03T10:11:43.508+08:002015-09-03T10:11:43.508+08:00@Warrior
Germany and Korea seem to do ok as expor...@Warrior<br /><br />Germany and Korea seem to do ok as export oriented economies, so its not really a hard and fast rule.<br /><br />But I think Mr Wang is conflating two separate development issues here. The "high growth fantasy" he refers to can be simply put down to growth accounting. If you look at the three components of growth - labour, investment, and productivity - there will behishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-88676975921719676612015-09-03T09:33:18.536+08:002015-09-03T09:33:18.536+08:00@anon 1.02
MAS uses the exchange rate as its mone...@anon 1.02<br /><br />MAS uses the exchange rate as its monetary policy tool, while Hong Kong uses a currency board system. You would expect to see exchange rate stability in those cases. In fact it would be downright disastrous for it to be otherwise. Given exchange rate stability, the consequences naturally turn up in other places. Both HK and SG are fighting deflationary pressures. So far HK hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-38964824251669015952015-09-02T13:05:05.667+08:002015-09-02T13:05:05.667+08:00Oops....that should be Bangko Central ng Pilipinas...Oops....that should be Bangko Central ng Pilipinas!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-40480694225096122612015-09-02T13:02:48.705+08:002015-09-02T13:02:48.705+08:00Ah, a R R fan!
The other central bank chiefs in t...Ah, a R R fan!<br /><br />The other central bank chiefs in the region aren't doing that a bad job themselves - like those heading up the HKMA, Bank of Thailand, Bank Indonesia, MAS and Bangkok Central ng Pilipinas.<br /><br />They have managed their currency gyrations against the USD pretty well.<br /><br />As for Krugman, he is a fan of "deficit spending". Definitely not a fiscal Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-57827003749471682282015-08-27T19:53:57.719+08:002015-08-27T19:53:57.719+08:00I just read this:
http://www.thestar.com.my/Busin...I just read this:<br /><br />http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/08/27/China-richest-man-says-time-for-government-to-abandon-high-growth-rate-fantasy/?style=biz<br /><br />Granted that this is nothing like the monetary trilemma, the so-called "Impossible Trinity". I was just wondering whether moving from an export oriented model to a consumption driven one, is a must Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-80811734440188864012015-08-27T09:55:22.556+08:002015-08-27T09:55:22.556+08:00I would interprate it as the following. In the 90&...I would interprate it as the following. In the 90's, there was an unprecedented boom in the stock and real estate market because of the opening up of financial accounts and deregulation to counter the economic crisis in the 80's. More and more capital was being diverted to these sectors, culminating in asset prices increase. Capital or excess demand are not being used for investments in hohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17988753908738602205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-71402713839422004652015-08-27T09:53:31.886+08:002015-08-27T09:53:31.886+08:00I would interprate it as the following. In the 90&...I would interprate it as the following. In the 90's, there was an unprecedented boom in the stock and real estate market because of the opening up of financial accounts and deregulation to counter the economic crisis in the 80's. More and more capital was being diverted to these sectors, culminating in asset prices increase. Capital or excess demand are not being used for investments in hohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17988753908738602205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-60064531501941000302015-08-26T17:07:17.450+08:002015-08-26T17:07:17.450+08:00"Excess demand was turning up not in inflatio..."Excess demand was turning up not in inflation, but in asset prices."<br /><br />What do you mean sir?Group 8https://www.blogger.com/profile/00896095858032211954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-81345411650659114922015-08-25T15:56:27.699+08:002015-08-25T15:56:27.699+08:00The herd behaviour is being push forward by financ...The herd behaviour is being push forward by financiers, while economist still on their rational model the so call homoeconomicus. I say, the economist will never understand the market and get to nowhere if they keep following the model they on to. <br /><br />Following this blog for long time, only now my hand feel itchy to write a comment.<br />-EiwanAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05296049023062173564noreply@blogger.com