tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post8561653032712056221..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: Forecasting Malaysian Trade: Some simple modelshishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-48162962476076117402009-07-30T20:17:24.574+08:002009-07-30T20:17:24.574+08:00Hi Nick,
I based these models on an empirical pro...Hi Nick,<br /><br />I based these models on an empirical proven prior - Malaysian imports and exports are <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cointegration" rel="nofollow">cointegrated</a>. That means there's a long term relationship between imports and exports, which means it's possible to forecast one with the other. But the approach I've taken is necessarily limited; I haven'hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-49227796570494853432009-07-30T14:38:23.104+08:002009-07-30T14:38:23.104+08:00Hey Hishamh,
I'm currently an intern at resear...Hey Hishamh,<br />I'm currently an intern at research department and I was given the task of forecasting trade in Malaysia. My knowledge in forecasting is rather shallow as I have just only finished my 2nd year in uni. It would be great if you could shed light on how you did your forecast and which program did you use? And would it be plausible to forecast trade levels on a quarterly basis? Nicknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-36947172835805508022009-04-17T14:56:00.000+08:002009-04-17T14:56:00.000+08:00Each regression has a calculated standard error wh...Each regression has a calculated <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_error_(statistics)" REL="nofollow">standard error</A> which can be used to calculate the interval forecast. In the Wiki article, they use the formula:<br /><br />upper bound: x + 1.96*s.e.<br />lower bound: x - 1.96*s.e.<br /><br />which gives 95% of the observations - the area under distribution curve - assuming a hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-24132717019973483052009-04-17T11:49:00.000+08:002009-04-17T11:49:00.000+08:00Thx for your insightful reply.. Learnt a lot. Will...Thx for your insightful reply.. Learnt a lot. Will try to digest..<br /><br />I miss asking this one:<br />1. how we get lower bound and upper bound ?WYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00687384573537625332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-76465338560326474342009-04-17T11:03:00.000+08:002009-04-17T11:03:00.000+08:00Thanks WY.
1. That would be the baseline model, b...Thanks WY.<br /><br />1. That would be the baseline model, based on my original regression - RM33832m<br /><br />2. f.o.b. means free on board, c.i.f. means carriage, insurance and freight. These refer to the way trade values are measured i.e. at point of entry or departure. Essentially, these signify the services element in trade (i.e. not just the goods values). The reason why gross trade hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-46045882853164097982009-04-17T10:38:00.000+08:002009-04-17T10:38:00.000+08:00Hi Hishamh,
Great post. A rare chance to see how ...Hi Hishamh,<br /><br />Great post. A rare chance to see how economist is doing forecasts.<br /><br />Hope you can shed some lights on:<br />1. For the seasonally adjusted forecast:<br />What will be the actual Mar export forecasted if take away the seasonal adjustment ? <br /><br />2. what do the term "f.o.b." (behind exports)and "c.i.b." (behind imports) mean ?<br /><br />3. WYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00687384573537625332noreply@blogger.com