tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post8562801474752639267..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: Political Forecasting: Anybody Can Do It; That Doesn’t Mean Everybody Shouldhishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger65125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-5429730432903864912013-01-25T18:32:37.544+08:002013-01-25T18:32:37.544+08:00Greg, I'm not going to do a full post on this,...Greg, I'm not going to do a full post on this, but I'll summarise some of the arguments:<br /><br />1. Azrul's analysis appears to be a based on the scenario analysis approach. While this may be useful for decision making, it is usually conducted with a <i>subjective assignment</i> of probabilities of the likelihood of the various scenarios under consideration, which could incorporatehishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-78231619951112343482013-01-25T10:06:45.044+08:002013-01-25T10:06:45.044+08:00Hisham,
I respect your wishes, views and actions...Hisham, <br /><br />I respect your wishes, views and actions. This is after all the hallmark of individual freedom. <br /><br />I think we should not pity Azrul but respect him. <br /><br />Imagine this:<br /><br />Azrul provides his analysis. <br /><br />And members of the profession provide their expert opinion. <br /><br />Members of the public are able to have a expert analysis of a key issueGreg Lopezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03717331115173935202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-52861501823778098332013-01-25T01:37:18.099+08:002013-01-25T01:37:18.099+08:00Zuo De, TMI is The Malaysian InsiderZuo De, TMI is The Malaysian Insiderhishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-6633823762982932822013-01-25T01:36:56.491+08:002013-01-25T01:36:56.491+08:00Ellese, I will certainly keep trying.Ellese, I will certainly keep trying.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-64484521003266978072013-01-24T11:02:47.820+08:002013-01-24T11:02:47.820+08:00Morning All,
Ellese A, i support, yes Hishamh you...Morning All,<br /><br />Ellese A, i support, yes Hishamh your writing is balance, keep it up especially for people like us who are not economist or the like.<br /><br />As a newcomer to social media, sorry for my ignorance, what is TMI<br /><br />Zuo DeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-19050406272708691122013-01-24T08:07:06.748+08:002013-01-24T08:07:06.748+08:00But I think you should. Your views have been not o...But I think you should. Your views have been not only balance but focused and issues based. Eg the status on the debt. Because of the spin many think our debt is reckless and thus will support pr. But pr has for years issued budget that will only increase our debt. We are simply not thinking and decide what is right or wrong on who you support. And media of both sides take partisan views Ellese Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13791900100205630825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-61160206828160298232013-01-23T22:16:49.134+08:002013-01-23T22:16:49.134+08:00Greg, you're absolutely right. I've been b...Greg, you're absolutely right. I've been both incoherent and inconsistent, and definitely not following the form as far as critiquing Azrul's actions - for that, apologies all round. My actions and manners over this little saga haven't been fully rational.<br /><br />The fact of the matter is, this issue leaves me a little emotional as it touches on the credibility of the hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-25681352319578711472013-01-23T21:35:22.402+08:002013-01-23T21:35:22.402+08:00Dear Greg,
I think the sequence is straightforwar...Dear Greg,<br /><br />I think the sequence is straightforward. I don't know whether bimb knows he's partisan. Now assuming bimb does, I think if he keeps to himself ie not on official capacity it's fine. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. But he blatantly without disregard represent his own partisan view in an official capacity knowing full well bimb cannot support it. he used Ellese Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13791900100205630825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-63141919693809482812013-01-23T20:54:46.634+08:002013-01-23T20:54:46.634+08:00Ellese, if you have read Nurhisham's earlier c...Ellese, if you have read Nurhisham's earlier comments, his political affiliation is not the problem:<br /><br />-----------------------<br />hishamhJanuary 17, 2013 at 12:44 PM<br />Greg,<br /><br />Azrul's political affiliation are not the source of contention here - BIMB knows very well what they are, and Azrul has never made a secret of it. This has not been a problem in the past.<br /Greg Lopezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03717331115173935202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-70542912552873500972013-01-23T14:43:07.131+08:002013-01-23T14:43:07.131+08:00Ellese, I agree with your views. For the last part...Ellese, I agree with your views. For the last part, I've noticed the same thing myself. I've never managed to get any of my comments past TMI's moderators.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-1705043686147610692013-01-23T06:27:44.438+08:002013-01-23T06:27:44.438+08:00I think Azrul must declare his conflict. His perso...I think Azrul must declare his conflict. His personal forecasting is purely partisan. We unlike developed countries don't have studies or polling to objectively determine how the people feel. Political forecasting in Malaysia is pure partisan based on feel. Take for example the case of Lembah Pantai represented by nurul izzah. To pr it's a clear cut case she'll win. To bn they are Ellese Ahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13791900100205630825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-43214883999024867782013-01-21T14:24:56.835+08:002013-01-21T14:24:56.835+08:00what if i work in pr statesor pr control entity an...what if i work in pr statesor pr control entity and make such remarks about PR ,i think it will be worstAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-38133919666060748922013-01-19T18:04:03.579+08:002013-01-19T18:04:03.579+08:00We seem to be going in circles. Anyway for the las...We seem to be going in circles. Anyway for the last time (if you don't agree, we'll just leave it as it is).<br /><br />"...So? I can issue my own professional opinion of what will happen to the economy if XYZ happens. That doesn't mean my employer will or should stand by that opinion, no matter what the professional quality of it may be..."<br /><br />This is interesting - Greg Lopezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03717331115173935202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-23150443281542955892013-01-18T23:56:27.799+08:002013-01-18T23:56:27.799+08:00"If he is their chief economist - then he spe..."If he is their chief economist - then he speaks for Bank Islam."<br /><br />All the more reason to be careful about delineating which opinions are issued in one's personal capacity and which are issued in one's official capacity. Even the CEO of a company does not have carte blanche to say "My company believes XYZ", unless said chairman is the primary/sole shareholderjohnleemkhttp://openborders.infonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-21086779438105770062013-01-18T22:04:08.790+08:002013-01-18T22:04:08.790+08:00Bank Islam is an entity (a legal person). but it i...Bank Islam is an entity (a legal person). but it is represented by actual persons - its officers. <br /><br />If he is their chief economist - then he speaks for Bank Islam. From publicly available information, he was at this conference, representing Bank Islam (Correct me if I'm wrong)<br /><br />Maybe we can ask Nurhisham - when you speak at a conference, where you are invited because of Greg Lopezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03717331115173935202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-51251651997682540822013-01-18T15:11:10.888+08:002013-01-18T15:11:10.888+08:00lol i dont know how to reply in the same thread!
...lol i dont know how to reply in the same thread!<br /><br />johnleemk<br /><br />how do you know the bank endorse or not endorse azrul view? just asking. <br /><br />HuaYongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-48333287167050198202013-01-18T11:59:56.269+08:002013-01-18T11:59:56.269+08:00In other words, if you take the politics out of th...In other words, if you take the politics out of the scenario, it's exactly the same thing: if he'd said "if palm oil prices fall next year, XYZ will happen" and implied Bank Islam stands by this analysis when he was purely acting in a private capacity, he'd be just as subject to internal discipline. The fact that Bank Islam is a GLC or that this analysis might be useful to johnleemkhttp://openborders.infonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-67998348534979413782013-01-18T11:51:23.871+08:002013-01-18T11:51:23.871+08:00The point I am making is that if you make yourself...The point I am making is that if you make yourself out to be acting as an agent of your institution (and I think attaching that institution's trade dress to your presentation materials meets this bar), your institution needs to approve of what you are saying.<br /><br />The point about GLCs not being property of Umno or whatever, or the point that Azrul didn't say anything critical of BN,johnleemkhttp://openborders.infonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-50517546737123716682013-01-18T11:02:35.479+08:002013-01-18T11:02:35.479+08:00Zuo De,
Believe me, I am far more useful to Mala...Zuo De, <br /><br />Believe me, I am far more useful to Malaysia here than I could ever be in Malaysia ( i just would not have the freedom, the resources, and the institutional backing in Malaysia to do the kind of work I'm doing.)<br /><br />All the same, I salute each and every Malaysian for your struggles, and do miss being in Malaysia in this historical time. Greg Lopezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03717331115173935202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-26587546653859086922013-01-18T10:59:50.193+08:002013-01-18T10:59:50.193+08:00You'll be surpirsed about how much Malaysians ...You'll be surpirsed about how much Malaysians who are in Malaysia all the time actually know about Malaysia (because they are too busy cari makan, taking care of the family, fighting traffic jam, etc.) then someone like me who spends all his time observing and doing actual systematic research on Malaysia. Greg Lopezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03717331115173935202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-34154697365778974072013-01-18T10:56:34.315+08:002013-01-18T10:56:34.315+08:00Sorry - yes you are correct Hisham - suspendend pe...Sorry - yes you are correct Hisham - suspendend pending domestic inquiry. But don't you find the timing a little odd - after he has made a presentation. hmmmm<br /><br />But your right - I'm venting a lot of hot air. It just pisses me off that something as trivial as this leads to such drastic action but the scale of crime in the police, in the immigration, - and you get promoted. <br /><Greg Lopezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03717331115173935202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-90076406635827169862013-01-18T10:14:06.759+08:002013-01-18T10:14:06.759+08:00Sorry, it should be then and not than.
Zuo DeSorry, it should be then and not than.<br /><br />Zuo DeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-77007791339073539012013-01-18T10:10:26.067+08:002013-01-18T10:10:26.067+08:00Morning Greg,
As you agreed, it is within Bank Is...Morning Greg,<br /><br />As you agreed, it is within Bank Islam (whether a GLC or not is beside the point) right to suspend (not dismiss) him. Ok shall we all stop here than.<br /><br />As for all the other points you passionately brought up, thank you for sharing.<br /><br />From your comments, i take it you are in Australia. You are there, i believe, is based on your personal choice that i Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-74820303312625908272013-01-18T09:53:33.402+08:002013-01-18T09:53:33.402+08:00"abuse of office email"
ha, what a joke..."abuse of office email"<br /><br />ha, what a joke. i believe 90% abuse office internet. so how?HuaYongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-80572645128262248422013-01-18T09:46:40.311+08:002013-01-18T09:46:40.311+08:00"I say to everyone - nothing will change in M..."I say to everyone - nothing will change in Malaysia. PR is not going to make Malaysia better because the rot in Malaysia is so deep that unless the Malay-Muslim mindset changes (about the role of government), nothing will change in Malaysia."<br /><br />everyone especially the malay muslim has changed, and change much much more than the non malay non muslim, how long u never back to HuaYongnoreply@blogger.com