tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post1866709608413992984..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: The Fuzziness Of Economic Forecastshishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-42069043202580317642012-04-04T14:05:28.513+08:002012-04-04T14:05:28.513+08:00Yeah, that is kinda cheating. Still it's bette...Yeah, that is kinda cheating. Still it's better than just filling in the numbers.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-61457532264357835792012-04-04T09:31:02.633+08:002012-04-04T09:31:02.633+08:00Some of those forecasting macro statistics just us...Some of those forecasting macro statistics just use Holt-Winters. Which is kind of cheating.<br /><br />But whatever makes the client happy.Hafiz Noor Shamshttp://maddruid.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-22751047649546405022012-03-31T02:07:46.083+08:002012-03-31T02:07:46.083+08:00I suspect a lot of investment houses use a combina...I suspect a lot of investment houses use a combination of time series models and leading indicators, but this is just conjecture.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-52870582226309628892012-03-30T10:00:31.130+08:002012-03-30T10:00:31.130+08:00@anon
The ETP's true target is whatever gets ...@anon<br /><br />The ETP's true target is whatever gets us to high income status, which is defined by the World Bank. Since that's a matter of conjecture, I'm afraid the goalposts are going to keep changing right up to the last minute. It's the nature of the thing. Setting the target in stone won't change the end result.<br /><br />@shihong<br /><br />I have no idea how the hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-3259484983190637192012-03-30T09:32:53.870+08:002012-03-30T09:32:53.870+08:00Hi Hishamh,
Just wondering if you are familiar wi...Hi Hishamh,<br /><br />Just wondering if you are familiar with how the i-banks, like Goldman Sachs, or Morgan Stanley do their forecasting? Do you think that they would apply such rules-based model forecasting, or perhaps use a more ad hoc model with a lot of tweaking here and there all the time? Just curious about the insights into how their "proprietary models" would actually work. <Shihonghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02264003213143587074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-16446498627268297462012-03-29T19:51:51.429+08:002012-03-29T19:51:51.429+08:00The basic question is what is ETP's actual tar...The basic question is what is ETP's actual target?Is it 1.7 trillion nominal gni in 2020 which translates to 8.8% nominal growth per annum or is it RM48k per capita i.e abt 7.5% growth?Surely fixing the goalpost or the "true north" is not too difficult.<br />It also begets the question that if EPP(which is not the whole economy creates 800 bil of GNI its negative growth outside the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-30338156880861410492012-03-29T19:50:56.802+08:002012-03-29T19:50:56.802+08:00The basic question is what is ETP's actual tar...The basic question is what is ETP's actual target?Is it 1.7 trillion nominal gni in 2020 which translates to 8.8% nominal growth per annum or is it RM48k per capita i.e abt 7.5% growth?Surely fixing the goalpost or the "true north" is not too difficult.<br />It also begets the question that if EPP(which is not the whole economy creates 800 bil of GNI its negative growth outside the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com