tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post3589921766793701336..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: The REAL Impact of the ETP: The Recession That Never Washishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-71730142106652900032018-12-28T06:47:47.563+08:002018-12-28T06:47:47.563+08:00Do you need Personal Loan?
Business Cash Loan?
Uns...Do you need Personal Loan?<br />Business Cash Loan?<br />Unsecured Loan<br />Fast and Simple Loan?<br />Quick Application Process?<br />Approvals within 8-10 Hours?<br />Funding in less than 1 day?<br />Get unsecured working capital?<br />Contact Us At: standardonlineinvestment@gmail.com<br /><br />LOAN SERVICES AVAILABLE INCLUDE:<br />================================<br />*Commercial Loans.<br /Abdul Muqsehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06092494291267701210noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-9930436433818492912014-05-19T16:35:48.702+08:002014-05-19T16:35:48.702+08:00Warrior,
I've been debating whether to issue ...Warrior,<br /><br />I've been debating whether to issue a substantive reply, but I've decided against it as it would not be fair to you or other readers. Some of the data I'm basing my conclusion on is not in the public domain, so I'll leave it at that. Suffice to say, I'm still confident my conclusion is correct.<br /><br />@anon 11.34<br /><br />Actually, the impact of BR1M hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-42262411313486815792014-05-19T16:28:13.049+08:002014-05-19T16:28:13.049+08:00ck,
A wealth tax is a fairer and more efficient w...ck,<br /><br />A wealth tax is a fairer and more efficient way of taxation. I have no issues with it on that score. As a tool to manage inequality, I think there's none better.<br /><br />My problem has always been enforcement. It's much harder to do than an income tax, where for instance, governments can mandate deduction at source. A second issue is valuation, where asset price hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-84079159941603451012014-05-16T11:34:30.631+08:002014-05-16T11:34:30.631+08:00Warrior 231, I sense mellowing, too much grass???
...Warrior 231, I sense mellowing, too much grass???<br /><br />I share your exact sentiment and indeed looking back I was dead against all the handout like BR1M etc, but later I noted the downturn approaching in 2011/2012, so I think actually these handout helped the economy somewhat (cushion / soft landing).<br /><br />And of course were all these part of ETP or not that is the debate here, your Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-51115354736756193812014-05-16T06:45:48.666+08:002014-05-16T06:45:48.666+08:00Warrior,
I think the latest BNM Annual Report ha...Warrior, <br /><br />I think the latest BNM Annual Report has got you covered for your first and second question (I think) ref: Table 1 and Chart 5<br /><br />http://www.bnm.gov.my/files/publication/ar/en/2013/cp04_001_box.pdf<br /><br />It's still disposable income that's the major factor in driving PC. Housing wealth and Financial wealth has increased in prominence but according to the Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03517459200735545587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-84625762448630758662014-05-16T02:33:25.543+08:002014-05-16T02:33:25.543+08:00Thanks Zuo De. Nice to touch base with you too.
r...Thanks Zuo De. Nice to touch base with you too.<br /><br />regards<br />Warrior 231Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-91543868501921943232014-05-16T02:30:43.186+08:002014-05-16T02:30:43.186+08:004. Which brings us to the question , why are my co...4. Which brings us to the question , why are my comments running against the grain, as a pal who follows your blog avidly voiced to me in private.<br /><br />Nope, I am not being contrarian or plain vexatious for the sake of it. I have no interest whatsoever in belittling any initiative. <br /><br />I am beyond that, self sufficient in more ways than one, alhamdullillah – as free as a bird can Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-80581823754168399812014-05-16T02:26:58.420+08:002014-05-16T02:26:58.420+08:001. Basically my contention was this. That irrespec...1. Basically my contention was this. That irrespective of ETP or otherwise, domestic demand was already a prime driver of growth as way back as 2007.<br /><br />Your suggestion is ETP is the catalyst; mine is increased private consumption by debt /easy credit with property being one of the titillating factors.<br /><br />How the data bears out each contention is for the readers to decide.<br /Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-5918889088770720742014-05-15T17:54:53.791+08:002014-05-15T17:54:53.791+08:00Bloomberg columnist Clive Crook authored an intere...Bloomberg columnist Clive Crook authored an interesting commentary "Taxing global wealth is not a joke". Google it.<br /><br />In it, he commented on Pikkety's "Capital In The 21st Century" and said "it has been vastly overpraised", but that his proposal for a global wealth tax " that has been roundly dismissed by fans and critics alike deserves to be taken captain kirknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-62534267131053950142014-05-15T17:39:32.636+08:002014-05-15T17:39:32.636+08:00It seems to me that all the ETP's "low ha...It seems to me that all the ETP's "low hanging fruits" have been plucked already.<br /><br />Aided by generous doses of "pump priming" by the government.<br /><br />Now comes the hard part. Real and significant economic restructuring. A full-blown reform of the education system. Dismantling of the subsidies regime. Getting the government out of business and into governing captain kirknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-83859701767453321482014-05-15T12:03:32.977+08:002014-05-15T12:03:32.977+08:00Zuo De,
No promises, but I'll try. I got the ...Zuo De,<br /><br />No promises, but I'll try. I got the copy last month, but 700 pages is a lot to wade through. I wish there was an audio version.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-34874823074810152142014-05-15T12:02:34.298+08:002014-05-15T12:02:34.298+08:00Warrior,
1. You're getting mixed up. The fact...Warrior,<br /><br />1. You're getting mixed up. The fact of DD supporting the economy is precisely my point. The real question is why - you're assuming its exogenous, I'm assuming its endogenous.<br /><br />2. Actually, Singapore's HH debt grew even faster and for a longer period. I'll grant you Korea, though it should be noted that non-bank credit to households was growing athishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-3817460223444861202014-05-15T10:47:32.035+08:002014-05-15T10:47:32.035+08:00BTW, Hishamh, your view on Piketty's Capital i...BTW, Hishamh, your view on Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century, please.<br /><br />Thank you.<br />Zuo DeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-67897443343120709682014-05-15T10:45:30.513+08:002014-05-15T10:45:30.513+08:00Hello Warrior 231, nice to read your comment.
As ...Hello Warrior 231, nice to read your comment.<br /><br />As usual interesting rebuttal. Take care all.<br /><br />Zuo DeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-85093788822150748562014-05-15T10:22:00.736+08:002014-05-15T10:22:00.736+08:00My oh my…I am barely back and here we go onto anot...My oh my…I am barely back and here we go onto another skirmish again….hahahaha<br /><br />1.The reason I think the box supports my narrative is simple. It shows that domestic demand as a driver of GDP is not a new phenomenon. <br /><br />Sans ETP back in 2007/2008, we still had DD as a key driver, CAGR for 2007/08 being 9.2 is comparable to 9.1 in 2011/12. Not much difference there.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-22380580596816721572014-05-14T18:05:45.308+08:002014-05-14T18:05:45.308+08:00Warrior,
Bear in mind that the data covered in th...Warrior,<br /><br />Bear in mind that the data covered in that box article <i>includes the exact same period</i> that I've covered in my blog post. In fact I can justifiably argue that it in fact fully supports what I've written.<br /><br />Some other points:<br /><br />1. Non-bank credit in fact grew faster than household borrowing in 2011-2012. Household borrowing after the crisis has hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-47950841427437569652014-05-14T16:44:18.650+08:002014-05-14T16:44:18.650+08:00Not hiding dude. Just took a long break from virtu...Not hiding dude. Just took a long break from virtually everything to enjoy the sun, the sky, the birds and …of course the ‘grass’..heavenly. Yeah..I missed your blog too though we often clash xcepting Spork….hahahaha <br /><br />Putting aside the grade A pot and Spork for a moment, your link merely affirms the shift I mentioned. In fact, it goes on to show that domestic demand accounted for aAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-38558776528877658652014-05-14T15:39:39.061+08:002014-05-14T15:39:39.061+08:00The short answer for your questions re: Dr. Yeah i...The short answer for your questions re: Dr. Yeah is "yes, but it's definitely not me (phew!)"<br /><br />Not enough PHD private sector economists here, I realize. Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03517459200735545587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-24977442978985736452014-05-14T14:38:01.775+08:002014-05-14T14:38:01.775+08:00Jason,
I'm not dismissing construction, or ev...Jason,<br /><br />I'm not dismissing construction, or even public related infra spending, as a big factor here (it should be noted MRT Corp falls under public investment).<br /><br />I've seen the same numbers you've noted here - there has been a significant pickup in private sector construction. But if you look at the detailed GFCF breakdown in the national accounts releases, hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-53171605149950090722014-05-14T14:26:54.061+08:002014-05-14T14:26:54.061+08:00Warrior,
Where have you been hiding? I missed you...Warrior,<br /><br />Where have you been hiding? I missed you man.<br /><br />I was going to write a whole bunch of stuff about multipliers, property and household debt (there's a reason why I included a cross country comparison), but I think this will suffice:<br /><br />http://www.bnm.gov.my/files/publication/ar/en/2012/cp01_002_box.pdf<br /><br />Essentially the same framework you are usinghishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-68517671306283859772014-05-14T11:33:59.589+08:002014-05-14T11:33:59.589+08:00Hisham,
I don't think we can rule out anon...Hisham,<br /><br />I don't think we can rule out anon's assertion here. Total value of construction work done has increased during that period (page 5 of the link):<br /><br />http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/download_Construction/files/Construction/QCS_Q1_2014.pdf<br /><br />But if you strip the data down further it's privately-owned construction projects (although the numbers Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03517459200735545587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-19491882912860910522014-05-14T11:26:25.554+08:002014-05-14T11:26:25.554+08:00This hardly news let alone jaw-dropping, given t...This hardly news let alone jaw-dropping, given that domestic consumption has supplanted exports as the main driver of growth over the past ten years. In fact, using the ‘Import-adjusted’ method wherein GDP =(C-mC)+(G-mG)+(I-mI)+(X-mx) one would compute that private consumption accounted for approximately 30% of GDP in 2012 compared to 25% in the 2005 while export’s role had diminished by 7% Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-608948673423330542014-05-14T10:30:05.136+08:002014-05-14T10:30:05.136+08:00@anon
Public spending on infra is being spread ou...@anon<br /><br />Public spending on infra is being spread out from 2010 to 2020. Public investment was also mainly flat between 2012-2013. Sorry, your contention isn't supported by the data.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-69001126609871241312014-05-14T10:10:29.399+08:002014-05-14T10:10:29.399+08:00Nobody else among the Asian tigers building infra...Nobody else among the Asian tigers building infrastructure(MRT, ERL & subway) at 3x to 10x normal price..<br /><br />So its Keynes' fiscal overspending that did the jobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com