tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post5780132429354908682..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: BNM Watch: Don’t Expect Anything Todayhishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-9964658320613066752012-03-09T15:44:19.248+08:002012-03-09T15:44:19.248+08:00Thanks sir,
Actually I am trying to time locking o...Thanks sir,<br />Actually I am trying to time locking on USD to fund my child's education for next three years.Have this crazy intuition that it maybe 2.8 soon.But maybe we amateurs should not be timing complex markets;get on with our main objective and have a good night sleep.<br />Memories of post 1998 when first child's education just doubled is a lesson.<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-87295170067919062662012-03-09T14:59:20.850+08:002012-03-09T14:59:20.850+08:00Yes, leakage (in the economic sense) is what I'...Yes, leakage (in the economic sense) is what I'm thinking about when thinking of the outlook for this year. I don't think there'll be enough import demand to obliterate the trade balance, but I do think it will cause some downward pressure on the exchange rate (which is also income negative).<br /><br />One other factor I should have mentioned is that in pre-1997 crisis, the Ringgit hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-54362477076585065352012-03-09T13:24:19.117+08:002012-03-09T13:24:19.117+08:00We will be bringing in a lot of big money capex it...We will be bringing in a lot of big money capex items for the projects.And there will also more outflows from consultancies,imported workers incl high level specialist.I am also certain that with the pace of construction envisaged..even basic stuff like cement/clinker n rebars may need to be imported i.e as in 96-98.Guess unless export picks up the trade surplus maybe in danger.<br />Hope BNM canAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-48836984486915485562012-03-09T11:55:11.422+08:002012-03-09T11:55:11.422+08:00We aren't running a trade deficit this time. A...We aren't running a trade deficit this time. And we have a pretty competent governor at BNM. She'll not allow runaway bank lending, as happened in 1995-1997. So while I do think all these projects will raise inflationary pressure, we're in a far better position now than we were before if things do go wrong.hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-89778988762325777592012-03-09T10:59:16.019+08:002012-03-09T10:59:16.019+08:00I am looking at this from very layman POV.The next...I am looking at this from very layman POV.The next 3 years will be intense for construction industry..MRT,LRT,KLIFD etc..realy2 intense.Expect more imported labor etc.Think things will get a lot more expensive.<br />With the construction n inflation pushing up GNI;next three years nominal growth can hit double digits.<br />The worry is what happens after that?1998 again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com