tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post7096377369979868683..comments2024-03-27T18:15:59.096+08:00Comments on Economics Malaysia: IMF Upgrades 2012 Global, Malaysia Forecastshishamhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-39573840159355444362012-04-27T18:47:08.929+08:002012-04-27T18:47:08.929+08:00"Hishamh:...but I sincerely doubt it will hav..."Hishamh:...but I sincerely doubt it will have much of an impact on the overall level of inequality."<br /><br />Not if you attack with both wages and EBITDA prongs!<br /><br />1. Wages way behind at 28% of GDP (according to DOSM in 2005). So wages shd be restructured by reducing corporate profits/Operating Surplus. This will broadly reduced current inequality - irrespective of race.<brAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-80726850494454659612012-04-25T11:05:11.533+08:002012-04-25T11:05:11.533+08:00I don't think there is as comprehensive an app...I don't think there is as comprehensive an approach to Bumi incomes as there is on overall incomes. While I believe Teraju is indeed working in hand with Pemandu, I don't know how well their aims are integrated.<br /><br />On the subject of inequality, policies to promote Bumi businesses and incomes might reduce inter-racial inequality of incomes, but I sincerely doubt it will have much hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-90114080317527245752012-04-25T10:40:02.590+08:002012-04-25T10:40:02.590+08:00Whats the Bumi share of the GNI now and in 2020?Th...Whats the Bumi share of the GNI now and in 2020?There are interventions to ensure that the EPPs will at least progress.<br /><br />My calculations;using the same processes and data as Pemandu's is that currently we are at 26% in 2009 and will at best be 32% in 2020.But the main driver are the wages and very constant on the OS.<br /><br />But if the base assumptions i.e Pemandu's data and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-76005393017077803582012-04-25T10:01:34.342+08:002012-04-25T10:01:34.342+08:00Don't call me sir :)
Pemandu is aware of the ...Don't call me sir :)<br /><br />Pemandu is aware of the problem, but I don't know if solving it will be all that useful. The numbers will need to be constantly changed and revised as the situation changes. Part of the problem is that our starting points, and each milestone, will be constantly changing as well - DOS is continually revising current and historical GDP data as the underlying hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-46055117760743766102012-04-24T11:39:28.925+08:002012-04-24T11:39:28.925+08:00Thanks Sir...my point is the real target during th...Thanks Sir...my point is the real target during the internal deliberations was usd17-18k.Many references to this in various docs.Even the RM1.7 trillion GNI is representative of the real threshold.<br />The usd 15k is really a bail out when they did the summaries n powerpoints.Its simply that.<br /><br />Pemandu shld do better.On one hand they are talking of true North n hard numbers.On the otherAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-26138310047060892312012-04-24T10:56:53.596+08:002012-04-24T10:56:53.596+08:00Yes, plenty of discrepancies and you're not th...Yes, plenty of discrepancies and you're not the first to point them out.<br /><br />What makes all this so ironic is that among the consultants for Pemandu and the NEAC is the World Bank itself.<br /><br />Personally, I think we'll probably hit the lower end of the range (in terms of total GNI), but that's ok. The trick is that population growth is well below the number they're hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-20058031530598147152012-04-23T22:02:29.565+08:002012-04-23T22:02:29.565+08:00On the discrepancies with DOS data:
The fancy pow...On the discrepancies with DOS data:<br /><br />The fancy powerpoints was created after latest DOS data was available.The employment numbers was already published.It should have been adopted.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-52497137452180993412012-04-23T21:57:40.197+08:002012-04-23T21:57:40.197+08:00Thats really interesting.I agree that even on BAU ...Thats really interesting.I agree that even on BAU we should be hitting USD 15k before 2020.But it may not be the High Income Economy threshold.<br /><br />Based on the lower limit of 2.5% its USD 16k.Thus,in my opinion the more appropriate target would be USD 16k plus a 10% buffer i,e USD 17.6k.<br /><br />Based on Pemandu's assumptions of 31.6 mil population and RM 3.2 exchange rate,the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-45613855534944175192012-04-23T14:46:34.999+08:002012-04-23T14:46:34.999+08:00@anon,
Hope this helps:
1. DOS conducted the lat...@anon,<br /><br />Hope this helps:<br /><br />1. DOS conducted the latest population census in 2010, after the original NEM projections were formulated (you'll notice the forecast population growth rate figure is waaay off). In any case, the DOS population numbers themselves are projections, based on sampled birth and death rates and immigration numbers.<br /><br />2. What's realistic? hishamhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265308095732759923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6297413898275266606.post-60787372138519323112012-04-23T12:44:11.584+08:002012-04-23T12:44:11.584+08:00ETP is a very important component of Malaysia'...ETP is a very important component of Malaysia's economic plan.In fact Idris Jala says its more than a plan cos of true north and detailed numbers.<br /><br />I am not an economist but have tried very2 hard to understand the ETP from a "data" viewpoint as promoted by DSIJ.<br /><br />And I am really confused cos of so many basic discrepancies.<br /><br />1. The ETP 2009 figures for Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com