Inflation Perceptions

The Guv on inflation perceptions (excerpt):

Why doesn’t inflation rate reflect cost of living? All about perception, BNM says

KUALA LUMPUR, May 19 ― Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) suggested today that public perception of inflation tends to be higher than the actual rate, with the bias shaped by their personal experience of paying for food and transport.

This comes as the central bank announced a headline inflation rate of 4.3 per cent in the first quarter this year compared to 1.7 per cent in the previous quarter, owing to the hike in fuel pump prices and shortages of fresh fruit.

“Public perception of inflation is in fact influenced by frequently purchased price such as food. This item typically experience higher inflation.

“However household also spends on other items, such as clothing which are in fact experiencing price decline,” BNM governor Datuk Muhammad Ibrahim said in a press conference here.

This perception is also formed by spending on transport, a sector high price volatility, he said.

In comparison, Muhammad said the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or the inflation rate, is a reflection of overall price changes in economy that reflects average consumption of an average household.

I’ve been writing about this for years (latest here). BNM has also published an article in their quarterly bulletin that actually measures the degree of “misperception” (link here). The latter especially is worth a read. For a really deep look into the whole subject, buy the book!

Affin-Hwang Investment Forum 2017

I will be at the Affin-Hwang Investment Forum this Saturday morning for a panel discussion on the Malaysian Economic Outlook. It’s not free, but it’s open to the public. Details here.

Effective Exchange Rate Indexes: April 2017 Update

The NEER and REER page has been updated, as has the Google Docs version.

Summary

For the first time since April last year, the MYR indexes have gained across the board. Having said that, the movement has been relatively small – about 0.22% on a nominal basis, and 0.27% on a inflation adjusted basis. The gains against ASEAN have been smaller, at 0.17% for both real and nominal indexes. The revised data for March however, also shows the MYR sustaining above the 100 pt index mark at 100.49, versus the preliminary reading of 99.85.

On a bilateral basis, the picture is more mixed, with gains recorded against 9 out of the 15 currencies in the broad basket. The biggest gain recorded was against the AUD (1.94%), continuing on from last month’s movement, with the KRW (0.88%) and HKD (0.84%) rounding out to the top-3. The biggest drops were against the JPY (-1.71%), GBP (-1.64%) and INR(-1.20%). The indexes continue to be crossed, with the NEER remaining above the REER.

Changelog:

1. Indexes have been updated to April 2017
2. CPI deflators and forecasts have been updated for March/April 2017. There was a technical change in the splicing procedure for Thailand’s CPI deflator, which resulted in some very minor changes to the historical series. This only affects the Real Broad and Real ASEAN indexes.