Thursday, August 30, 2018

Why low income households have more children

On social media lately, I’ve been reading this sentiment that people who are poor shouldn’t have so many children. The apparent reasoning is that if you can’t afford to bring children up properly, you shouldn’t have them.

This attitude is not just paternalistic and condescending, it also ignores the economic incentives facing the poor.

There are, I think, two main reasons for the poor having more children:

Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Effective Exchange Rate Indexes: June 2018 Update

This post is seriously late, as I’ve just switched laptops and my editing software is being cantankerous. However, the NEER and REER page has been updated, as has the Google Docs version.

Summary

Despite the moves in the bilateral USDMYR exchange rate, there has been almost no movement in either the NEER and REER since February. This also applied to the narrow and ASEAN indexes as well. In other words, almost all the currency volatility of the past six months has been due to USD movements, with very little coming from other currencies. The nominal broad index was up 5.30% yoy, but just -0.15% on the month (REER: 4.78%, -0.15%).

Breaking down on a bilateral basis, movements were predictably mixed, with the Ringgit roughly up against half the basket and down on the other half. On a cumulative three month basis, the MYR has gained the most against the EUR (+3.15%), the GBP (+2.68%), the INR (+1.78%), the THB (+1.45%), and the AUD (+1.15%). The biggest losses were against the USD bloc countries in the basket, I.e. the USD (-2.35%), the HKD (-2.28%), and the VND (-2.18%).

01_indexes

Changelog:

  1. Indexes have been updated to June 2018
  2. CPI deflators and forecasts have been updated for May/June 2018
  3. Trade weights were updated to March 2018. This required revisions to all the indexes from Jan-18 onwards

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Here We Go Round the Mulberry Bush

Our PM in Japan (excerpt):

Malaysia asking for yen credit to help with national debt, says Dr Mahathir

MALAYSIA is asking Japan for credit as part of efforts to resolve its debt problem, Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad said today.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Dr Mahathir said he was told Japan was considering the request.

“I have explained the financial problem faced by Malaysia, and towards solving this financial problem, I have requested for yen credit from Japan and Mr Abe, the prime minister, will study this request,” Dr Mahathir said.

I don’t have much time, so I’ll keep this short. I’ll give TDM the benefit of the doubt here – he could be talking about refinancing some of the USD debt under 1MDB, which makes sense since the yield on that debt was way above market. However, using JPY loans to cover MYR debt makes no sense at all.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

No, International Reserves are NOT Government Savings

I’m starting to read this in social media comments about Malaysia’s public debt. That the government doesn’t have reserves; no, that Malaysia has plenty of international reserves; but Singapore has more reserves than we do! etc.

This is almost wholly nonsense.

Monday, June 4, 2018

RM1 trillion debt? Don’t Panic

I realise in writing this that I’ll probably be a very lonely voice in the wilderness, but I think this needs to be said and intellectual honesty forbids doing anything else. I also promised years ago that I would defend a Pakatan government when keeping an elevated level of government debt. I’m going to keep that promise now.
As the news of the Malaysian government’s real debt position has been slowly been revealed over the past two weeks, the reactions have predictably ranged from horrified to furious. Unfortunately, the prevailing thought is mostly about how this debt is to be paid back, and the burden on taxpayers as this is being done.
Let me flip my usual practice, and begin with my conclusion, before going into the reasons why.

Monday, May 21, 2018

BR1M: Good Or Bad?

Loanstreet has an article on the pros and cons of BR1M (excerpt):

Will BR1M Destroy Malaysia from Within?

Since BR1M was implemented in 2012, it's been heavily criticised by many sections of the public. Many view it as nothing more than vote buying from the marginalised in society. Its harshest critics even claim that such careless use of public funds will run the country to ruin.

We believe that politics aside, the merits of BR1M should be assessed on its own. Is it really such terrible policy? Will it ruin the country as some claim?

Because we ourselves did not know how to feel about it, we decided to thoroughly examine the issues surrounding BR1M to find out if it is actually good policy, or one that could lead Malaysia to ruin.

The “road to ruin” narrative might be a little over the top, but the article covers most of the essential points. This came out before GE14, so a rebrand is probably apposite – my vote would be for Dividend Rakyat.

Two things I would add to the articles points are:

  1. Cash transfers actually do address the root causes of poverty - for the next generation. Poverty should be seen not just in terms of the current poor, but the impact that poverty has on the chances for social mobility of their children. Meritocracy only works under the unspoken assumption that initial conditions for all children are the same, which under most circumstances they are not. It's not enough to provide a good education, since this ignores the importance of for example social capital. Studies on child development also point to the importance of education in the 0-5 age range in terms of soft skills development, which even universal pre-school will not fully address.
  2. BR1M was explicitly funded by the savings from the reduction in petrol subsidies. In fact, initially, they even shared the same account code in the government's books. The way government finance works in Malaysia, BR1M would be classified as operating expenditure, so it can ONLY be funded by revenues, and not by borrowing.

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

The First 100 Days

I’ve had multiple requests to comment on this, but haven’t had the time. To be honest, I didn’t read either side’s political manifesto too closely, as most election promises are so hedged with operational realities that the likelihood of full implementation was never going to be very high, when political idealism meets unyielding economic realities. However, now that we have some clarity on the direction forward, it’s time to seriously assess Pakatan Harapan’s manifesto.

I won’t go over the whole thing, just the 10 items that were promised for the first 100 days, and even then only those that are economics related. So, no comment on investigating scandals or the stature of Sabah and Sarawak.

Thursday, May 3, 2018

GST, Exports, and the Ringgit

This is something I had to explain a few times as well over the past couple of weeks, so again, committing this to writing.

The Pakatan Harapan manifesto promises to abolish the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and bring back the old Sales and Services Tax (SST). Analysts expect this (along with the other spending plans in the manifesto) to result in a sell down of the stock market, and a drop in the Ringgit. Contrary what people may think, this has nothing to do with “investor sentiment”. There are fundamental reasons for thinking this will happen, though I’ll only touch on the SST/GST effect.

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Fiscal Realities

A couple of things were raised last week that I want to address:

Issue 1: The Difference between Operating and Developing Expenditure

I’ve had to explain this at least twice over the last few days, so I thought I might as well spell it out. Malaysia is one of the very few countries that actually subdivides spending between operating and development expenditure – actually, I think Singapore is the only other country that does this. MOF keeps these accounts entirely separate (I’ll touch on how they intersect in a bit), whereas most other countries consolidate the two.

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Rethinking the Macroeconomics of Resource Rich Countries

VoxEU has a new e-book out on the way forward for commodity producing economies (excerpt):

Rethinking the macroeconomics of resource-rich countries: A new eBook
Rabah Arezki, Raouf Boucekkine, Jeffrey Frankel, Mohammed Laksaci, Rick van der Ploeg 24 April 2018

After years of high commodity prices, a new era of lower ones, especially for oil, seems likely to persist. This will be challenging for resource-rich countries, which must cope with the decline in income that accompanies the lower prices and the potential widening of internal and external imbalances. This column presents a new VOXEU eBook in which leading economists from academia and the public and private sector examine the shifting landscape in commodity markets and look at the exchange rate, monetary, and fiscal options policymakers have, as well as the role of finance, including sovereign wealth funds, and diversification.

It’s a compilation of papers from a 2016 conference, and to be honest, doesn’t really present anything ground-shakingly new on the subject. However, it does provide a convenient entree for those not familiar with the conduct of macro-policy in commodity producing countries (i.e. most Malaysians).

The article itself provides a short precis of the e-book, which you can download here.

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Effective Exchange Rate Indexes: March 2018 Update

The NEER and REER page has been updated, as has the Google Docs version.

Summary

A late CPI release by Taiwan caused this update to be late, as well as an update to the trade weights, based on export-import data for 4Q17.

On contrast to the last few months, the Ringgit was largely stable for March 2018, though still tending to the upside.The nominal broad index was up 6.42% yoy, but just 0.05% on the month (REER: 6.23%, 0.06%). The picture for the sub-indexes was equally mixed, with the nominal broad index down –0.14% compared to February, but with the real index up 0.06%.

Still, gains were broad-based, with the Ringgit up against 11 currencies and down against just 4. The biggest gain was against the AUD (+1.52% mom), building further on gains since the middle of last year. The biggest decline was against the JPY (-1.58%), though this was after rising 5 out of the last 6 months.

01_indexes

Changelog:

  1. Indexes have been updated to March 2018
  2. CPI deflators and forecasts have been updated for Feburary/March 2018
  3. Trade weights were updated to December 2017. This required revisions to all the indexes from Jan-17 onwards

Thursday, April 5, 2018

Historical Revisionism Redux

P. Gunasegaran demonstrates – yet again – that he doesn’t understand exchange rates (excerpt):

How successive governments impoverished M'sians

A QUESTION OF BUSINESS | At least two ways - both very wrong in the longer term - were used to support the export sector in Malaysia in believing that growth through exports was the right thing for a developing country like Malaysia.

But even though there was economic growth, which means more wealth was created, there was impoverishment too. But how could that be? Basically, those who were rich got richer and those who were poor got poorer.

How did the government achieve export competitiveness over the years? Through two measures. First, they reduced the number of things Malaysians generally could buy by going for a policy which weakened the ringgit. And two, they imported poverty by allowing the uncontrolled import of cheap labour.