Thursday, April 23, 2009

IMF World Economic Outlook Forecasts

No I haven't read it yet (you can find it here), but I did have a look through the accompanying database. Here are the forecasts for advanced nations through to 2014:

Note the relatively rapid recovery expected in the US, the deeper recession in Japan, and the slower recovery in Europe. Not too surprising - the US has done the most in terms of policy response, Europe much less while being more exposed to the external sector, and Japan greatly exposed to global trade shortfalls as well as having less scope for fiscal policy action. What I find interesting is the expected slowdown post-2012 - a side-effect of greater accumulation of public debt leading to higher interest rates is my thinking.

Here are the tiger economies:

Much the same story, although growth stabilises after recovery in 2010-11, with Singapore and Taiwan expected to be the worst affected this year. The BRIC group looks better, although Russia will be badly hit by lower demand for oil and gas:

Last but not least, Malaysia and our two neighbours (sans Singapore above):

I'm thinking that the IMF might be a tad optimistic putting GDP growth at 6% for Malaysia - but I'd be happy if it came true. One request: can anybody tell me why Indonesia is not falling into recession?

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