Thursday, June 11, 2009

April IPI: Upward Revisions

If it seems I'm slower to blog this month, I spent last week on holiday with my family and the whole of this week on a training course - so time has been extremely limited lately. So this update will be quick and dirty, and focus on the main points of April industrial production for Malaysia.

There were some significant upward revisions in 2009 data that was included with the April release, which served to raise growth rates a few points upwards. Not enough to overshadow the downturn, but does make things seem a tad less bad (log annual changes, seasonally adjusted):

Monthly growth has also turned strongly up (log monthly changes, seasonally adjusted):

So my call for a bottom to the downturn in April is in little danger (yet). All the indices have stabilised, and in fact we could even say that as far as the main index was concerned, the bottom started in January:

So some encouraging signs at last, though again, recovery is not a foregone conclusion.

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