Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Nov 2009 Industrial Production: It Sucked

It's hard to take any positives from November's numbers - it's been a weird month. Today's IPI report is just par for the course:

It's not exactly the falling off the cliff feeling from last year, but the numbers are disappointing after October's (log monthly changes):

On the other hand, apart from mining output (what's up with that? a reaction to the runup in oil prices?), looking at the index numbers it looks like the same story as what happened with trade - a return to the recovery trend rather than the beginning of a new downturn. Again, we're looking at the delayed effect of Hari Raya blues. If that's true than December should see much better numbers, as it normally does, with at least some growth evident.

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