Friday, January 11, 2013

November 2012 Industrial Production

If you’re a pessimist over Malaysia’s economy. stop reading now. This post might be a little challenging.

Most months, industrial production and trade numbers generally track each other. This time, while export growth was somewhat positive, industrial output was by comparison positively bubbly. Yesterday’s industrial production report shows output building on last month’s positive increase and accelerating to 7.2% y-o-y in log terms (annual and monthly log changes; seasonally adjusted):

01_gr

02_grc

Some slight explanation is in order here, as the unadjusted numbers show negative growth on the month – industrial production almost always falls in November, as shipments for the the year-end holiday shopping season trail off. This year, the pullback in production was half what it was last year.

Probably the bigger surprise (for me anyway) is in the “increase” in mining output, though I don’t think it will sustain.

In any case, what the IPI says for 4Q2012 GDP growth is illuminating – an IPI-based forecast yields a growth rate of 7.4%, which would be the fastest the economy would have grown since 2Q2010 (9.3%):

03_gdp

Just bear in mind that the standard error generated by the regression is around 1.3 percentage points, which yields a 95% range forecast of about ±2.5%, which is a little larger than normal.

My weighted average forecast, which includes other indicators, is a more reasonable 5.5% (±0.5%), which would give full year growth at also 5.5%. That’s much higher than any of last year’s private forecasts for 2012. Coupled with the jump in capital goods imports for November, growth momentum might be building up further for the Malaysian economy.

Technical Notes:

November 2012 Industrial Production Index report from the Department of Statistics (warning: pdf link)

2 comments:

  1. Kongres Ekonomi MelayuJanuary 11, 2013 at 5:37 PM

    Kongress Ekonomi Melayu akan diadakan di Kelantan, Ahad ini. Kongres demi kongress telah diadakan tetapi nampaknya tiada kesan. Kalau ada kesanpun tidak pasti sama ada positif atau negatif. Siapakah yang layak membincangkan mengenai ekonomi Melayu? Adakah badan atau Persatuan perniagaan Melayu? Pastinya mereka terlibat dalam merebut tender dan kontrak tapi itu hanyalah sebahagian dari ekonomi Malaysia atau Melayu. Takut juga setelah dapat kontrak dan tender hasil dari kongres ini, Presiden akan turut menyepi.

    Yang pasti ekonomi dan politik adalah sama. Tidak ada ekonomi Melayu tanpa kemerdekaan Melayu. Sebelum ada kuasa poliitik di tangan UMNO bagi orang Melayu semua reources Tanah Melayu telah di kawal oleh orang Inggeris dari England. Bagaimana orang Inggeris yang hidup beribu batu jauhnya dari Semenanjung dapat mengaut kekayaan semula jadi Tanah Melayu? Jawapannya tentulah kerana kuasa politik yang dipegang oleh Inggeris. Kenapa orang Melayu dan Raja Melayu mempersetujui supaya cukai timah, dan getah dsb di beri kepada Inggeris? Kenapa tidak dihalau saja orang Inggeris? Jawapannya adalah kerana orang Inggeris menggunakan kekerasan untuk menindas orang-orang dan Raja-Raja Melayu kepada tuntutan mereka.

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    1. Kongres Ekonomi TamilJanuary 15, 2013 at 1:32 AM

      Kongres Ekonomi Melayu telah dijadikan kuda tunggangan Tun Mahathir yang menjadi penaung. Perlu diingat dibawah Tun Mahathir lah lesen dan konsensi diberi kepada bangsa Cina dan India sewenangnya.

      Sekarang dia dan Mohiddeen Abd Kadir mengaku Melayu lagi kononnya. DPMM sepatutnya jadi DPTamil Malaysia.

      Dan KEM ditukar ke KET, Kongres Ekonomi Tamil lebih tepat lagi..

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