November 2013 Industrial Production

Yesterday’s industrial production numbers paint a picture of returning growth (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

Although the unadjusted numbers were a little lower than October’s, this appears to be normal; seasonally adjusted numbers show much stronger production than would have been expected.

The big surprise is the source: a big jump in mining output, which rose 8.7% in log terms from October’s level. The other sub-indices weren’t too shabby either, but were nowhere near as strong.

The other surprise is the implication for 4Q2013 growth. By my forecast models, I’ve actually had to cut the estimate from 5.8% last month to 5.5% based on the latest data (using IPI only; ±3.5%), and the weighted forecast from 5.4% to 5.3% (±1%) (log annual changes):

Nevertheless, that would mark the strongest growth number for the year, and bring full year growth up to 4.8% in percentage terms; or more or less where everyone seems to think it will hit.

Technical Notes:

November 2013 Industrial Production Index report from the Department of Statistics (warning: pdf link)