Wednesday, May 14, 2014

March 2014 Industrial Production

The March numbers that came out on Monday didn’t show a full picture of health, but did confirm that 1Q2014 growth is going to be pretty decent (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):

01_ipi_gr

02_ipi_grc

Annual growth came off the February highs, but this is mainly due to the base effect. Growth on the month was also lower, dragged down by a decline in electricity output. But both manufacturing and mining output were higher in March than in February.

More interesting still is the implication for GDP growth for 1Q2014 (RM millions):

03_forecast

The IPI-based forecast suggests 4.9% yoy (± 2%), a little lower than last quarter’s 5.1%. That’s not too shabby, all things considered.

However, my two weighted average forecasts (which use a variety of indicators) are substantially more positive. The model 1 forecast is a spiffing 5.9% (±1%) while model 2 is an even stronger 6.4% (±1.2%) – the un-weighted average is 6.6%. Most of the individual indicators are suggesting growth just as strong or even stronger – the current quarter export model for instance says 7.4%(!).

On that basis, I’d say anything below 6% would be disappointing. We’ll find out on Friday.

Technical Notes:

March 2014 Industrial Production Index report from the Department of Statistics

9 comments:

  1. Wow, Hisham - it looks as if you've secured the "Good Housekeeping seal of approval" from a "Singapork" newspaper!

    Today's Singapore Business Times (16 May) carried a commentary by it's KL-based reporter S Jayasankaran.

    Titled "M'sia expected to beat growth forecasts in Q1", he wrote:

    " Malaysia's gross domestic product expansion in the year's first quarter, which will be released today, could be a lot higher than anyone thinks.

    "Most economists have estimated the figure to be between 4.6 per cent and 5.4 per cent, but Hisham H, an economist whose blog 'Economics Malaysia' is fast developing a reputation for incisive economic analysis, begs to differ.

    ""I'd say that anything below 6 per cent would be disappointing," he wrote in a blog post analysing the latest industrial production data yesterday...."

    Way to go, Hisham!

    Can we now expect to see you and the Warrior 231 guy in action at economic conferences and forums in "Singapork" and in robust debate with Singapore-based economists such as Song Seng Wun (CIMB), Leong Wai Ho (Barclays) and Vishnu Varathan (Mizuho)?

    Given Warrior's trenchant views on the "Singapork" economy, and your own oft-expressed polite scepticisms about the city-state's finances, that would be a discussion well worth attending!

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  2. Hahahahaha, , a moronic Sang Kancil from the normal ones you get in them fables. A welcome change indeed.

    Dei moron:

    1.Warrior 231 is not a trained economist and never claimed or claims to be one.

    2.Bulls eye to HishamH. Kudos to him despite our disagreements on certain issues. And praises are deserved where they are due. Stuff that in your mite-sized brains, Sang Kancil. It will come useful elsewhere.

    So run on now...lil runt and dont forget to tar yourself in feathers, and smear your face with poo. Then hide in them bushes lest some smart crock gets to dine on an imbecile mousedeer at long last.

    By the way, all crocks know who you are.........

    Warrior 231

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    Replies
    1. Oops, your slip is showing, mate!

      Did I say anywhere in my post that you are a trained economist?

      Your hangups about "Singapork" are well known, and the stuff of fable. So, too, your dire predictions of doom and gloom for the Singapork economy.

      But, hey, they are still around. As Hisham will attest to.

      So, spare us your "links" and "cross references", because, to put it politely, they amount to crap all.

      Let's see the state of play in Asean, come 2020.

      Maybe, by then, China and India will be calling the shots.

      Who will be laughing then, eh?

      Delete
    2. It is your slips that are showing girlie boy. If I am not even a trained economist. only idiots like you would link me to an economics conference attended by your Song,Leong and Vish (by the way, the last I checked Wall Street and Main Street havent heard of them)

      And you can talk till the pigs come home to the pens, pig farmhand but when the esteemed Singapork gets off this list give us all a call, then:

      http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/204280.pdf (page 38)

      http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/terrorist-illicit-finance/Documents/Trade-based-ML_062006.pdf

      Oooh.I made a mistake. The US State Department must be making a mistake for 3 straight years.....hahahahahaaha.

      And by the way, yeah Chingkieland aka China will be indeed calling the shots as their super duper satellite technology, and Chow Kit Road ping detector has shown the world in MH370. Sorry...no links for that one for that will be toooooooo taxing for a mite sized brain idiot......

      Now go and do what you do best....filial piety, mah....mah....and you know where to hide after that, dont you? wink wink
      ROFLMAO ..... What a waste of s....and e...

      Warrior 231

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  3. Warrior, hmm effect of the grass wearing off .... but kudos to Hishamh.

    Indeed Singapore seem to have some issues ... http://www.baldingsworld.com/2014/05/13/the-real-cpf-problem/

    Zuo De

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  4. Zuo De

    When a race bigot of a troll comes calling, the appropriate policy response would be to launch a race-laced diatribe... hahahaha. No point in engaging such morons with reason, for it doesnt have brains in the first place to engage, but to fight fire with fire. Simply put, anyone wanna play the game, I can play it better.

    The next thing, he will do is come whining like some slip wearing pansy that he had not raised anything racist but we know this kind better than most - the ultimate hypocrite who spouts merit blahblah blah but who suppresses other ethnics for self gain:

    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/soc.culture.singapore/_qaW_ZsY9Tg

    (p/s; the link in Ho's comment is broken, I have the full paper and provided the link here and in Rocky Bru before, it is gated by the way)

    (p/s: see how even Ho blames the British and note too I am quoting from yellow race sources....that makes a racist..right? yawn..zzzzzz)

    The same kind responsible for the income distributional inequalities, Jason raised in the previous post, the solution to which would be a wealth tax as I mooted two years ago here.

    You seem to be reasonable enough to analyse Balding whom I have linked here before too. Kudos to you for not being dismissive like the uneducated and illiterate mousedeer. If there were more like you around, this country would be an immensely better place. and the world a vastly more conducive space.

    Unfortunately, it can never be that way, as certain things are shaped by cultural "eugenics" to be that way. It is born of a superiority complex yoked on to a siege mentality. Cultured vs Barbarians metaphors played out in different ways.

    Physical: the Great Wall; Linguistic: Language (http://pinyin.info/readings/texts/moser.html); Social: Clan networks, Political: Closed Shops (DAP,PAP, CCP, all same modus operandi) Spiritual: Chingk stylisation of adopted faiths (classic case, study the Chinese version of the Indian Buddha) etc.....and all that's just a snapshot.

    Its premised on the "close shop" mindset, the selfstyled Civilized hunkering down in the physical/cultural bunkers to face the "Barbarian" onslaught and I know it better as I was schooled in it for 4 years before I told my dad, i wanted a proper, normal, unxenophobic primary school environment. After all, only certain people with hideous eye sockets and yellow tans are entitled to call themselves "sons and daughters of heaven" (yellow is the universal symbol of cowards, bythe way ...hahahaah) Calling all that cultural claptrap out earns you the term "racist", Nazi......etc

    And dont get worked up over the techie thingy. Seen many Cherrys on the local highways? Even the maligned Protons are far more common. That shows even their own kind know how low class their tech stuff is compared to the Japs or even the Koreans but only because they live away from xenoland and been exposed to the real world.

    The smart Americans know that China is no threat whatsoever...just a paper tiger trying to prance around like a hideous, scary dragon....hahahaha. Fact is the yanks can nuke them pigs three times over and still have some more nukes as spare change. But that is all too difficult for the slit-eyed bully wannabe to understand blinded as he is by his superiority complex, but I digress..

    And sadly, being far away from home (here, Sydney, London or NY) has yet to remove the ingrained cultural DNA........hahahaha

    Warrior 231

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    Replies
    1. Zuo De & Warrior,

      It's taken a while, but I think I've finally got a handle on SG public finances and how its structured together, thanks to some commentators and my own digging. I think Prof Balding is absolutely correct in criticising the management of Temasek and GIC - there's no obvious benefit to the people of SG, only to the government of SG.

      Having said that, I think he's wholly wrong in thinking there is a hole in SG public finances. There isn't. SG public debt is used for very specific purposes that can be traced, and none of it goes to either of the SG SWFs.

      Approximately half is monetary debt, similar to the way BNM uses BNM BIlls. This is being phased out, as MAS is now authorised to issue its own debt to manage financial sector liquidity. The other half is used to finance HDB land acquisition and property development, which is then repaid through purchases (partly) financed through CPF withdrawals.

      In essence however, this makes CPF more of a credit union or building society than a retirement provident fund. In that sense, Balding has a point - I don't see a real advantage in this approach, as while it provides a solid foundation for asset values and provides a cheap means of house ownership, it traps Singaporean retirement savings in a single asset class which is hard to liquidate, and may or may not provide adequate returns.

      It's not quite as bad a picture as Prof Balding paints - citizens do get to keep the capital gains from house ownership - but any half trained investment manager would throw their hands up in horror at such an arrangement.

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    2. Jeeez…you have gone soft on Spork, haven’t you dude?hahahaha But even your apologia for Spork’s financial shenanigans cannot hide the fact that yellows over there are being ripped off by their own gomen….hahahahaha.

      And that gomen is dominated by ….yeah you guessed it right, yellows as well….sort of a thief ripping off a thief scenario aint it or a skunk outskunking its own kind….haahahaahaaha (ROFLMAO …..teary eyed at that!!!). As the wise would say, it takes one own kind to ……err…….a#%ef***k , one’s own….hahahahahahaha

      Fact of the matter is moneylaundering, thieving, conning can only get one so far before them roosters come roosting from another direction. When I showed them UNDP figures on international capital/stock flows to a banker over there, he squirmed in his chair before acknowledging the inevitable. Only maybe,the Caymans and Switzerland have perfected the scam better……and banker boy was from the yellow stock too,mind you. And I haven’t got into other scams yet like last year’s Non-deliverable Forwards (NDF) rigging, the complete report of which is still awaited after long promised…..hahahahahahaha or this:

      http://www.baldingsworld.com/2014/04/10/deutsche-bank-suspends-employee-for-mas-contact/

      Finally, to be ripped off in the CPF stakes as Balding puts it would have been downright insulting/demeaning to the ethnic superiority complex, wouldn’t it? I mean I can imagine mouths agape as they try to figure out “how on earth dint our superior brains figure out something so simple sooner”…….if you get my drift…hahahahahaha.

      But the fact remains- conned they have been, still are and always will be - but I guess they don’t mind as they love being a**ef*****d to a t. hahahahaaha. Cultural……..mah.

      But still credit where’s due. Spork sure knows how to protect those ill-gotten gains as I said earlier in your earlier post below, after all survival trumps everything else, right?

      Whatever it is …the yellows are living walking s*^%. Not only a bunch of shafted stupid bleary eyed gullible yobs but xenophobic ones at that :

      http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26832115

      And that despite Balding’s own apologia in an earlier post:

      http://www.baldingsworld.com/2014/05/09/are-singaporeans-xenophobic/

      Warrior 231

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