Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Chart of the Week: Manufacturing Sales

Manufacturing sales versus trend forecast (RM millions):

01_sales

Boom.

Technical Notes:

Data from various issues of Monthly Manufacturing Statistics from the Department of Statistics Malaysia

Posted by hishamh at 2:00 PM
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7 comments:

  1. AnonymousMarch 21, 2017 at 2:51 PM

    but when adjusted for 2011 MYR:USD exchange rate?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hishamhMarch 21, 2017 at 3:04 PM

      What for?

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMarch 23, 2017 at 9:55 PM

      ..because if they included exports, they would have been in USD which has strengthened against MYR the later part of 2016.

      Delete
    3. hishamhMarch 24, 2017 at 12:07 PM

      That's a convoluted way of doing things. All you need to do is look at the export/import volume and unit value indexes.

      I've never been a fan of converting into USD, because this presumes that goods prices in USD are stable. Unfortunately they aren't, and there have been quite substantial cross country changes over the past three years. US export unit value index for example has fallen over 10% since 2014.

      Another reason why I don't think converting is worthwhile - the 2014-2015 drop in the Ringgit was far more severe than the one in 2016, without the same kind of response in MFG sales.

      Delete
  2. Zuo DeMarch 22, 2017 at 11:28 AM

    Morning, who did the sale forecast?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hishamhMarch 22, 2017 at 11:30 AM

      Morning Zuo Dd,

      I did. It's just an extrapolation of the 5-year trend

      Delete
    2. Zuo DeMarch 24, 2017 at 5:03 PM

      Well with so many variables (seasonal, trading countries headwinds, etc etc), it is a wonder that the forecast have been, in my opinion, very close. So what would be your forecast for the coming quarters, 2nd half 2017?

      Delete

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