Thursday, August 27, 2009

We're Out Of Recession - For Now

Quick post while I'm still absorbing the 2Q 2009 GDP numbers, as well as the concurrent release of the July MSB. As will be reported in the papers today, real GDP fell 3.9% yoy in the second quarter, after a 6.2% drop in 1Q 2009. The log changes are a little worse, at 4.0% and 6.5% (log annual changes; 2005=100):

But using the more standard seasonally adjusted, q-o-q annualised method (see this post for the difference in calculation), 2Q 2009 growth reached a whopping +12.9% (annualised log quarterly changes; 2005=100):

On that basis, barring data revisions, Malaysia went through just a two quarter recession (unofficially) even if the depth of the contraction was fairly deep - the 1Q 2009 figure was -18.1%. Although it's clear we're in the recovery phase, we're not quite out of the woods yet as the level of output is well below trend:

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