July 2010 External Trade: At Least It Ain’t Falling

July’s trade report that was released today by MATRADE shows exports slightly down on the month, but not so much you’d notice (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

July numbers historically tend to be higher, but after allowing for seasonal effects, not quite high enough. They are right in the middle of my forecast band though.

Almost all the growth is coming from non-electronic exports (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

…although even those have slowed over the last few months – the China effect I presume.

We’re coming up to peak production season, as factories gear up for the end-of-year shopping season both here and in the west, so you’d expect exports to ramp up particularly in October and November. What with the end of the summer holidays in the west and Ramadhan in the East, I wouldn’t don’t expect too much out of August however, even if the models are suggesting some growth:

Seasonally adjusted model

Point forecast:RM54,826m, Range forecast:RM61,686m-47,965

Seasonal difference model

Point forecast:RM58,729m, Range forecast:RM67,032m-50,426m

Technical Notes:

July 2010 External Trade Report from MATRADE.