Just as I thought might happen, the Census’ effect on employment (from temporary employment caused by Census 2010) has finally died away in September, though you won’t really see it in the unemployment rate:
It’s still bottom-feeding, indicating that the labour market at least is hitting constraints, even if production has not.
Rather, you can see the effect in terms of the labour force and the employment numbers:
The Malaysian economy has lost something like 200,000 “jobs” in the last couple of months, and a little more than that in terms of labour force participation. Although the DOS didn’t employ that many for the Census exercise, there’s also the knock on effect to consider.
At this point I’d look to see unemployment to start rising again, as fresh graduates start hitting the job market from September onwards. As economic growth appears to have slowed for 3Q 2010, slower job creation should see more numbers of unemployed graduates.
Technical Notes:
September 2010 Principal Statistics of Labour Force Report from the Department of Statistics (pdf link)
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