Wednesday, July 6, 2011

May 2011 External Trade

As forecast, trade in May turned out lower than April’s (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

01_exim

This time though, both E&E and non E&E exports fell (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

02_ee

The continued monthly drop in imports suggests that June trade is likely to stagnate or drop further – not a positive sign for real GDP growth for 2Q 2011.

Next month’s forecasts:

Seasonally adjusted model

03_sa

Point forecast:RM57,566m, Range forecast:RM64,796m-50,337m

Seasonal difference model

04_sd

Point forecast:RM56,356m, Range forecast:RM64,333m-48,379m

Technical Notes:

May 2011 External Trade Report from MATRADE.

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