May 2011 External Trade

As forecast, trade in May turned out lower than April’s (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

This time though, both E&E and non E&E exports fell (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

The continued monthly drop in imports suggests that June trade is likely to stagnate or drop further – not a positive sign for real GDP growth for 2Q 2011.

Next month’s forecasts:

Seasonally adjusted model

Point forecast:RM57,566m, Range forecast:RM64,796m-50,337m

Seasonal difference model

Point forecast:RM56,356m, Range forecast:RM64,333m-48,379m

Technical Notes:

May 2011 External Trade Report from MATRADE.