Last week’s trade numbers (released Friday) show the same bounce that affected industrial production (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):
The annual growth figure isn’t too encouraging, but at least its growing – for the first time in two months. The monthly data however suggests why: we’re looking again at the Ramadhan effect, where shipments drop during fasting month and bounce back afterwards.
So just like for industrial production, I don’t see this pace being sustained, nor do I think we’re seeing a turnaround in external demand…yet.
Looking at come of the major components (RM millions)
It’s hard to argue for any real recovery – while oil & gas exports appear to be trending up in terms of value, E&E exports are trending down while price declines have been affecting CPO.
All told, I don’t see any much if any growth contribution from the external sector any time soon.
September 2012 External Trade report from MATRADE