I’ve been skipping a lot of data releases this month because work, and because of course with the elections a month away, there are more important topics to look at.
Nevertheless, the economy waits for no man, and this development is interesting enough to warrant a look (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):
Frankly, February’s industrial production data sucked, too put it mildly. The main index fell 4.5% in log terms from last year and was 1.4% lower from January’s level.
This could, with some justice, be put down to the CNY effect, except that electricity production rather unusually dropped sharply as well. Historically, that has almost never happened outside a recession, so I’m a little concerned that this might turn out a little more serious than the overall picture suggests.
On the other hand, the IPI has been suggesting economic growth is higher than it should be i.e. it’s underestimating the level of economic activity. That’s because last year’s growth was largely supported by investment and using goods produced overseas (aka imports) rather than domestic production.
This could be the case again (log annual changes):
The current quarter IPI is suggesting 1Q2013 growth at just 3.3% (standard error of 1.1%), which sounds on the low side to me. The weighted average forecast on the other hand is a more palatable 5.8% (s.e. 0.5%), which sounds a tad too high.
I’d still err towards thinking GDP growth will come in a little on the low side, though given last quarter’s growth surprise, I wouldn’t put it past the economy to pull another fast one.
Technical Notes:
February 2013 Industrial Production Index report from the Department of Statistics (warning: pdf link)
Posts
I doubt most of it is about PCs. The production of PC in general has been declining for ages now. It was a bad drop in February for PC production but hey, it's nothing compared to previously seen.
ReplyDeleteIn fact if you look at the February IPI table (see page 64), petroleum production (which has a huge weight) drop was worse than the drop PC and related items production.
And petroleum was not the only one down. Other major categories unrelated to PC/semiconductors had trouble growing as well.
I mostly think it's just seasonality. It's a double whammy really. Chinese New Year in Feb 2013 and a leap year in Feb 2012. So, I'm discounting most stuff in February.
You know what's interesting? Seeing growth in certain categories despite overwhelming negative growth figures. The categories are:
ReplyDelete1. Shoes (hahaha. Presents?)
2. Wood products
3. Paper (Ang Pow packets?)
4. Rubber (!)
5. Metal (!)
6. Machines (?)
7. Vehicles/trailers (MRT and stuff?)
Wonder whether all that above 55%, 60% or whatever % Malaysian national debt doomsday mongers will have wet dreams reading this:
ReplyDeletehttp://qz.com/75035/fixing-this-excel-error-transforms-high-debt-countries-from-recession-to-growth/
http://qz.com/75117/how-influential-was-the-study-warning-high-debt-kills-growth/
http://qz.com/75119/how-to-avoid-making-an-excel-mistake-like-rogoff-and-reinhart/
Why even the IMF is whistling a different tune:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/16/how-the-imf-became-the-friend-who-wants-us-to-work-less-and-drink-more/
Dang..there goes my flight plans!!. I have already packed my bags for a quickie getaway on worries that a debt mountain crashing down on Malaysia will not look pretty on my 401K, my equities, my FDs, my undies blah blah blah.
Precisely what we get when we leave important matters of bread and butter in the hands of economics illiterate monkeys, scaremongering yahoos and boneheaded apes masquerading as our know it all polirats. polirats? Remember 'politikus'.
Now you see why democrazy can make everyone a cynic overnight? And lil wonder why inane believers deserve to be shafted where the sun never shines and the moon never peeks day in day out.......hahahahahahaha
By the way...knock knock knock are you there, aardvark?.......hahahahaha
Warrior 231