Saturday, May 11, 2013

Global Energy 25 Years From Now

This will probably be useful to somebody (abstract):

The Global Energy Outlook
Richard G. Newell, Stuart Iler

We explore the principal trends that are shaping the future landscape of energy supply, demand, and trade. We take a long-term view, assessing trends on the time scale of a generation by looking 25 years into the past, taking stock of the current situation, and projecting 25 years into the future. We view these market, technology, and policy trends at a global scale, as well as assess the key regional dynamics that are substantially altering the energy scene. The shift from West to East in the locus of energy growth and the turnaround of North American gas and oil production are the most pronounced of these currents. Key uncertainties include the strength of economic and population growth in emerging economies, the stringency of future actions to reduce carbon emissions, the magnitude of unconventional natural gas and oil development in non-OPEC countries, and the stability of OPEC oil supplies.

Key takeaways:

  1. Current projections (25-years ahead) show energy consumption growing slower than previously expected;
  2. The main drivers for growth in energy consumption are GDP per capita, population and energy intensity of economic structure i.e. the richer the country, the more energy it uses per person;
  3. About half of global population growth, 60% of income growth and 70% of energy consumption growth over the next 25 years will be in the East (Asia and the Middle East);
  4. The share of fossil fuels in producing energy is expected to drop, except for natural gas;
  5. Renewable energy sources currently account for just 13%, but could as much as double if policy action against climate change is taken;
  6. Assuming no change in policy, CO2 emissions could increase 40% in the next quarter century, which could raise global mean temperatures by more than 3 degrees Celsius;
  7. The analysis disputes the contention that the world has passed “peak oil”, but oil and gas demand will show the weakest growth in the next 25 years.

Technical Notes:

Newell, Richard G. and Stuart Iler, "The Global Energy Outlook", NBER Working Paper No. 18967, April 2013

1 comment:

  1. Notwithstanding His bizarre fondness for Hayek, Pacal's suggestion may have merit after all

    Warrior 231