Recovery on the trade front seems firmly entrenched, based on the latest numbers (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):
Exports rose an annual 9.0% in log terms and 1.3% on the month. Import growth was even higher at 13.3% and 4.8%. Despite the difference in growth, the trade balance continues to hold steady above RM8 billion:
Electrical and electronics exports have now shown positive growth for a third straight month, the first time that has happened in three years (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):
It’s not a price effect either, because export prices mostly fell in October, on both annual and monthly bases. The change in trend is even more obvious looking at the levels:
So what we have here is some confirmation that the global economic recovery is getting stronger. I don’t think it will be quite enough to bring full year Malaysian GDP growth above 5.0%, but the possibility is getting stronger.
October 2013 External Trade report from MATRADE