Yesterday’s IPI report from the Department of Statistics shows a gratifyingly strong growth spurt (log annual changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):
Even better, monthly growth is showing up as pretty strong as well (log monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):
I’m a little cautious about whether this will continue into February because CNY will bring output down quite a bit, and the January numbers may just be a reflection of a hurry-up-so-we-can-go-on-holiday effort on the part of manufacturers. You can also bet that the heat wave of the last couple of months played a part in boosting electricity output (and consumption).
Apart from that, I find this encouraging, though it should be noted that the manufacturing index is still well below its peak in 2007-2008, and we have to factor in that there was considerable slack in capacity even before we fell into the recession.
Technical Notes:
Industrial Production Index Report from the Department of Statistics
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