Saturday, December 4, 2010

Oct 2010 External Trade

I expected a bounce, but not quite as good as this. October’s seasonally adjusted export numbers showed a monthly increase for the first time in six months (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):


In percentage terms, October’s exports just beat out the consensus estimate of zero annual growth, and was a little above last month’s forecast. More importantly, imports of inputs (capital goods and intermediate goods) went up as well, which is a good sign for the rest of the quarter (log monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):


On that basis, I’d expect exports to continue to climb in November, with realisation more likely to be in the upper half of the range forecast.

Seasonally adjusted model


Point forecast:RM52,749m, Range forecast:RM59,334m-46,165

Seasonal difference model


Point forecast:RM55,711m, Range forecast:RM63,568m-47,854m

Technical Notes:

October 2010 External Trade Report from MATRADE.

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