Saturday, December 4, 2010

Oct 2010 External Trade

I expected a bounce, but not quite as good as this. October’s seasonally adjusted export numbers showed a monthly increase for the first time in six months (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

01_trade

In percentage terms, October’s exports just beat out the consensus estimate of zero annual growth, and was a little above last month’s forecast. More importantly, imports of inputs (capital goods and intermediate goods) went up as well, which is a good sign for the rest of the quarter (log monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

02_imp

On that basis, I’d expect exports to continue to climb in November, with realisation more likely to be in the upper half of the range forecast.

Seasonally adjusted model

03_sa

Point forecast:RM52,749m, Range forecast:RM59,334m-46,165

Seasonal difference model

04_sd

Point forecast:RM55,711m, Range forecast:RM63,568m-47,854m

Technical Notes:

October 2010 External Trade Report from MATRADE.

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