BNM Watch: MPC (Non)-Meeting Today

If there’s anybody who honestly expects any change in the monetary policy stance today, there’s a bridge I’d like to sell him.

There’s been no substantial changes in the outlook for inflation or output over the past couple of months – the incoming data is volatile, with production disappointing but loan growth holding up (despite new prudential lending guidelines). Externally, China’s not expected to suffer a hard landing, the US recovery is still there though weakening, Europe’s firmly in recession, Greece is on the brink of leaving the Eurozone (again) and the rest of the East Asian region is…doing ok. Commodity prices have softened a bit, but financial markets are holding up.

All that adds up to no compelling reason to shift the OPR up or down. Today’s meeting will be another non-event. Things might get a mite more interesting later on in the year, but for now – no change.