The September numbers aren’t nearly as pretty as the improvement in external trade (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):
The culprit this time is mining, which has dropped close to 8% over August-September, coincidentally as oil prices have been rising. While annual growth rates are down, all the other sub-indices are showing growth on the month.
In any case, it doesn’t really change the outlook for GDP growth during the third quarter (log annual changes):
The IPI based forecast stays at 3.8% (±2.0%) and the weighted average forecast at 4.7% (±1.0%). I have a feeling actual GDP might come in a little higher than that, or even above 5.0%, but whatever the case, growth is likely to be much stronger than in the first half of the year.
September 2013 Industrial Production Index report from the Department of Statistics (warning: pdf link)