Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Here We Go Round the Mulberry Bush

Our PM in Japan (excerpt):

Malaysia asking for yen credit to help with national debt, says Dr Mahathir

MALAYSIA is asking Japan for credit as part of efforts to resolve its debt problem, Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad said today.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Dr Mahathir said he was told Japan was considering the request.

“I have explained the financial problem faced by Malaysia, and towards solving this financial problem, I have requested for yen credit from Japan and Mr Abe, the prime minister, will study this request,” Dr Mahathir said.

I don’t have much time, so I’ll keep this short. I’ll give TDM the benefit of the doubt here – he could be talking about refinancing some of the USD debt under 1MDB, which makes sense since the yield on that debt was way above market. However, using JPY loans to cover MYR debt makes no sense at all.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

No, International Reserves are NOT Government Savings

I’m starting to read this in social media comments about Malaysia’s public debt. That the government doesn’t have reserves; no, that Malaysia has plenty of international reserves; but Singapore has more reserves than we do! etc.

This is almost wholly nonsense.

Monday, June 4, 2018

RM1 trillion debt? Don’t Panic

I realise in writing this that I’ll probably be a very lonely voice in the wilderness, but I think this needs to be said and intellectual honesty forbids doing anything else. I also promised years ago that I would defend a Pakatan government when keeping an elevated level of government debt. I’m going to keep that promise now.
As the news of the Malaysian government’s real debt position has been slowly been revealed over the past two weeks, the reactions have predictably ranged from horrified to furious. Unfortunately, the prevailing thought is mostly about how this debt is to be paid back, and the burden on taxpayers as this is being done.
Let me flip my usual practice, and begin with my conclusion, before going into the reasons why.