March 2015 Industrial Production

Well, well, well (log annual and monthly changes; 2010:100):

4Q2013 Construction and Distributive Trade

The prevailing narrative I see in the media these days – both mainstream and online – is that the economy is in trouble, and we’re doomed unless the government does something (alternatively: we’re doomed unless we change the government).

I don’t know; the numbers are painting an entirely different picture. The angst is partly a function of price increases, which have squeezed wallets across the country. It’s also I suppose a function of which sector you’re working in and whether labour is sharing in the money coming in.

4Q 2009 Distributive Trade Report

I’ve never, ever covered this before - I don’t even have the data on hand – but just reading the report suggests that the impression I got from our 4Q GDP numbers were correct i.e. domestic demand went flat to declining in the 4th quarter, and almost all the growth came from the external sector.

The report covers an overall assessment, and a breakdown by sector into wholesale, retail and motor vehicles. While quarter on quarter retails sales rose 0.6%, wholesale trade fell 0.8% and while motor vehicle sales fell 1.6%. In total sales fell 0.4% or -1.6% annualised. The retail sales segment looks good, but growth mainly came from department stores and supermarkets – discounts and pricing power I suspect.

No wonder nobody feels particularly enthused by “recovery”.


Technical Notes:
Distributive Trade 4Q2009 Report by the Department of Statistics