Saturday, October 10, 2009

August Trade

Sometimes, it's depressing when you get proven right. In a previous post, I talked about the probability of August data showing a downturn due to the beginning of fasting month. Lo and behold, both exports and imports fell in August (log annual and monthly changes):

Worse, both fell on a seasonally adjusted basis as well (log monthly changes):

About the only bright spot was a jump in crude oil exports, but you can put that down almost entirely to rising international crude oil prices, not an increase in export volume.

Whether the August figures are really bad depends on how you interpret the seasonal effects. On the one hand, the drop could be signaling that the inventory correction (see last month's trade post) that exporters are undergoing could be ending, which means worse trade numbers going forward. On the other hand, the fact that fasting month is not a fixed solar calender event means that my seasonally adjusted figures aren't fully taking into account the impact it has on output, and may be overestimating where the data should be. I'd prefer to believe the latter is happening, but we'll see how it goes the next couple of months.

Forecast updates:
Seasonally Adjusted Model

Point forecast:RM43461, Range forecast:RM48847-RM38074

Seasonal Effect Model

Point forecast:RM47541, Range forecast:RM54175-RM40906

Technical Notes:
1. Trade Data from Matrade

No comments:

Post a Comment