Friday, November 19, 2010

3Q GDP Estimates: All Over The Place

Apparently the consensus is that there is no consensus:

Economists’ M'sia Q3 GDP growth estimates vary widely

KUALA LUMPUR: Uncertainty over how the economy performed in the third quarter has resulted in a wide disparity in economists' estimates ahead of the official announcement on Monday.

Economists have projected that the gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter could come in at between 3.5% and 7.8%, while the forecast in a poll of 11 economists by Bloomberg averaged 5.7%…

The announcement is due on Monday.

I did a simple regression model to forecast 3Q 2010 GDP based on the Aug-Sept IPI, which yielded a point forecast of RM141.7 billion, which amounts to 5.2% growth y-o-y and –3.1% growth q-o-q (saar). Note that anything under about 5.7% (ironically, the average forecast) implies that the economy actually shrank in 3Q 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

I’m thinking (hoping rather), that BNM’s confidence that domestic demand is holding up might push growth beyond that implied by manufacturing alone. If that’s the case, I’ll need a better specified forecast model – but that would be a nice problem to have.

No comments:

Post a Comment