Friday, September 20, 2013

August 2013 Consumer Prices

Consumer price inflation for August was released a couple of days ago (log annual and monthly changes):


Inflation decelerated slightly to 1.9% in log terms, largely due to an actual decline in overall food prices for the month (log annual and monthly changes):


A little unusual, but not wholly unexpected as stable prices generally follow major holidays.

But this is just the calm before the storm, given that the 20sen petrol and diesel subsidy cut occurred the first week of September.

Next month’s consumer price numbers will make for much more interesting reading.

Technical Notes:

August 2013 Consumer Price Index report from the Department of Statistics


  1. Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Ahmad Maslan today tabled the Supplementary Supply Bill 2013 in Parliament today seeking RM14.12 billion for government expenses.

    Among these, the largest sum sought is for Treasury services amounting to RM11.85 billion.

    Others seeking additional funds are the Education Ministry (RM322.77), Health Ministry (RM300 million), Public Services Department (RM298.2 million), Defence Ministry (RM239 million) and the Home Ministry (RM205 million).

    Your views on this please ..looks like treasury seeking bulk of the additional funds mostly likely for interest payments and MGS maturities.

    1. @Anon 10.32

      It's unlikely to be for debt service - borrowing is only conducted for the development budget and to roll over existing debt, both of which are known quantities every year. Even taking into account the increase in average yields this year, you are only talking about the impact on the margin (the difference between planned and actual borrowing) i.e. perhaps 0.5% of new debt and maturing debt, which would be about RM450 million.

      The government tries to balance the opex budget, which implies that as usual they've underestimated revenue - again. Looks like revenue is going to be above RM220b, which was my forecast for this year.

      As for where the money is going to, I suspect civil service bonuses and pork barrel projects promised under GE13.