Monday, November 11, 2013

September 2013 Industrial Production

The September numbers aren’t nearly as pretty as the improvement in external trade (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):



The culprit this time is mining, which has dropped close to 8% over August-September, coincidentally as oil prices have been rising. While annual growth rates are down, all the other sub-indices are showing growth on the month.

In any case, it doesn’t really change the outlook for GDP growth during the third quarter (log annual changes):


The IPI based forecast stays at 3.8% (±2.0%) and the weighted average forecast at 4.7% (±1.0%). I have a feeling actual GDP might come in a little higher than that, or even above 5.0%, but whatever the case, growth is likely to be much stronger than in the first half of the year.

Technical Notes:

September 2013 Industrial Production Index report from the Department of Statistics (warning: pdf link)

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