Basel III In The Works: New Capital And Leverage Framework For Banks

Banks and bank-like entities were at the epicentre of the Great Global Recession, and there’s more than a few criticisms that the current prudential financial framework (aka Basel II) contributed to the crisis by being too pro-cyclical. The proposals for Basel III would tighten capital requirements significantly, though not to the point of killing banks’ ability to funnel credit to the economy at large:

Basel Capital Ratio Compromise Reached, Zeitler Says

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Global regulators reached a compromise on capital ratios for banks that will introduce higher capital requirements over a five- to 10-year period starting in 2013, a German central bank official said…

…Policy makers are seeking to raise the quality and quantity of reserves held by banks to avoid another financial crisis. Governments have been wrangling over the details with France and Germany among those concerned that their banks and economies wouldn’t be able to bear the burden of tougher capital requirements until economic recoveries took hold. Group of 20 leaders meet in November in Seoul to approve the rules.

Die Zeit newspaper reported Sept. 6 that the Basel Committee met to discuss a proposal demanding a minimum capital ratio for financial institutions of 6 percent as well as a “conservation buffer” of 3 percent for bad times. The proposal would have required an additional “anti-cyclical capital buffer” of 3 percent during “boom times,” the newspaper said.

As to the level of capital ratios, the committee has found a compromise as compared to the proposal,” Zeitler said. He didn’t reveal any numbers.

Banking And Housing Part III

I was going to write about this (again), as there has been quite a bit of talk regarding limiting loan to value ratios (here and here for instance), but Salvatore_Dali has a good write-up on it already, with up-to-date data on price movements:

Malaysian Property Bubble?

If you say Malaysian property bubble, it does not look so plausible ... but if you replace it with KL or Penang property bubble, you have more nodding heads - with possibly the property sales and developers disagreeing…

…Almost every single valuation matrix would put property prices in KL and Penang in the overvalued category…

…Foreign buyers are mostly leaving finished units and houses empty. Don't believe me, go check out houses and apartments costing more than RM2m and RM1m respectively. If you can get 50% occupancy, call me and tell me where!!!

Read the rest for his analysis.

Outward Investment: EPF And UK Property

I was struck by the juxtaposition of the articles on property in yesterday’s Star. On the one hand we have news of oversupply and softening rental yields in the KLCC Condo market (here, here and here), in stark contrast with the news that the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), the country’s largest fund manager public or private, is committing to invest GBP1 billion in the UK:

Should EPF house our money in real estate abroad?
Sideways by ANITA GABRIEL

IT’S as predictable as clockwork.

Any move by the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), unless it’s glaringly positive, tends to set off warning sirens. Much of it has to do with the fact that the employed, 12.4 million of them, have no choice but to channel part of their hard-earned savings to the fund, hence the perceived-right to voice dissent or concern.

There’s also the “legacy stigma” that now and then rears its suspicious head, that the EPF, with its bursting wallet, may be acting in ways that are not in sync with the pillar on which it was set up almost two decades ago – to safeguard the people’s retirement monies.

So, when it was recently revealed that EPF plans to tuck some £1bil (or 1.2% of its total investable sum) primarily into commercial properties in UK, the vibes were multi-pitch.

Now obviously, with the number of stakeholders that EPF has there’s going to be questions – as in this article. But I happen to think it’s a pretty positive move (and the consensus agrees).

Kelantan Gold Dinar Sold Out

Kelantan Gold Trade has run out of stock:

Dinar sold out in Kelantan
By ZUHRIN AZAM AHMAD

PETALING JAYA: Kelantan’s gold dinar that was recently introduced has been sold out with most people buying it for investment purposes.

Kelantan Gold Trade (KGT) Sdn Bhd that issues the dinar and the silver dirham said about RM1.5mil worth of dinar and RM1mil worth of dirham had been sold since it was introduced on Aug 12…

…KGT is the subsidiary of Kelantan Mentri Besar Corporation which also manages the syariah-compliant currency.

Umar said about 150,000 dinar and dirham coins were minted and many bought them for investment purposes.

Never mind whether it’s legal or not, the fact that many bought the coins for “investment” purposes rather than for actually use as currency points to gold’s current (and past) unsuitability as a monetary base.

NEM Part 2 To Be Published Next Month

When the New Economic Model document was first published back in March, it was criticised for being short on details. We were told that Part 2 of the plan would rectify that – well the countdown has begun:

Najib gets second part of NEM report

PUTRAJAYA: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak has received Part 2 of the New Economic Model (NEM) report from the National Economic Advisory Council (NEAC).

NEAC chairman Tan Sri Amirsham Abdul Aziz handed the report to Najib at the Prime Minister’s Office here yesterday.

The report titled “New Economic Model for Malaysia – Part 2: Strategic Policy Measures”, will be released to the public next month in the form of an Economic Transformation Prog­ramme (ETP) report, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement yesterday. It said the ETP report would spell out government plans and proposals for the 12 National Key Economic Areas (NKEAs).

It’s been a looong time coming, but once we get into the detailed implementation plans, that’s when the real public policy debate will begin. I rather suspect the timing will be closer to early October rather than late, as that will give a (short) lead time for any feedback to be included in the 2011 government budget program, which is due to be tabled at the end of next month.

Stay tuned.

2Q 2010 Federal Government Budget and National Debt Update

I’ve kept this on the back burner since last week because there have been more immediate news to attend to. But now I’ve had some time to go over the stats, the government fiscal position looks pretty decent if you’re a believer in fiscal consolidation (quarterly, RM millions):

In The Global Forex Market, The Ringgit Is A Minnow

The Forex Blog parses the Bank of International Settlements’ Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity (warning: pdf link):

Trading In Emerging/Exotic Currencies Increases

…While emerging currencies as a group accounted for a smaller share of overall activity, certain individual currencies managed to increase their respective shares. The Singapore Dollar, Korean Won, New Turkish Lira, and Brazilian Real all fit into this category. Still other currencies, such as the Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit, also managed impressive gains but account for such a small share of volume as to be insignificant when looking at the overall the picture. Those who were expecting even bigger growth should remember that it’s ultimately a numbers game: the amount of Ringgit it [sic]outstanding is dwarfed by the number of Dollars, so any gains that the Ringgit can eke out are impressive. In addition, when you consider that the overall forex pie is also increasing, the nominal increase in volume for these small currencies was actually quite large...

July 2010 External Trade: At Least It Ain’t Falling

July’s trade report that was released today by MATRADE shows exports slightly down on the month, but not so much you’d notice (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):

BNM On Hold

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee kept the Official Policy Rate pegged at 2.75% today, pretty much as everyone was expecting (emphasis added):

Monetary Policy Statement

At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting today, Bank Negara Malaysia decided to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75 percent.

The global growth momentum has moderated in recent months….Domestic economic activity, however, remains strong. Given these developments, the assessment going forward is for the global recovery to proceed at a more moderate pace.

…As in other regional countries, Malaysia's export growth has, however, slowed in recent months…Leading indicators suggest that private consumption and private investment will continue to expand. This is also supported by the favourable labour market conditions, positive consumer and business sentiments, low inflation and conducive credit conditions.

…Going into 2011, inflation is projected to continue to remain moderate.

The MPC considers the current monetary policy as appropriate and consistent with the latest assessment of the economic growth and inflation prospects. At the current level of the OPR, the stance of monetary policy continues to remain accommodative and supportive of economic growth.

Banking And Housing Again

Further to my last post on this issue (see here), banks are apparently working with BNM to limit property speculation:

Banks to try and prevent speculation on property prices
By ANGIE NG and SHARIDAN M. ALI

PETALING JAYA: Bank Negara is engaging with banks on possible measures to curb excessive speculation on property prices while developers caution that it should not be imposed across the board to avoid dampening the property market.

Responding to queries on whether the central bank will be imposing a 80% loan-to-value ratio (LVR) for mortgages to avert the risk of a potential property bubble, the central bank said: “Bank Negara regularly engages with industry players as part of its surveillance and supervisory activity. The engagements cover a broad range of issues and areas that relate to developments on the ground, safety and soundness of the institutions and the overall system.”

…When contacted, banking industry players said it was likely that any measures to be introduced would be pre-emptive measures to target certain quarters of purchasers and would not be across the board.

The measures are believed to be targeted at the high-end and non-owner occupied house purchasers.

Property developers are predictably against the idea. I suspect however, that the consensus is right – if any guidelines on minimum downpayments is actually put in place, it’ll only affect properties at the high-end.

An Absence of Markets: Banking Edition

OK, I don’t mean that title literally, but if you’ll bear with me you’ll see what I mean. I got tickled pink – in a I-can’t-believe-this sort of way – reading this in the paper today:

Aid for banks to address staff pinching
By SHARIDAN M. ALI

They will get 25% from penalty paid by poacher bank to Financial Staff Training Fund

PETALING JAYA: Banks that suffered from staff poaching in the industry will be better compensated starting this year so that they can reinvest in training.

The compensation will be in the form of 25% allocation from the penalty paid by the poacher bank to Financial Staff Training Fund set up to address staff pinching.

Previously, the whole portion of the penalty, which amounts to six months new salary of the employee being pinched, goes to the fund.

However, the 25% allocation for banks that were pinched will be the form of credit that can be used to train staff at Institute of Bankers Malaysia (IBBM) and Financial Sector Talent Enrichment Programme (FSTEP).

It was reported that staff pinching in the country’s banking industry might become rampant with the entry of more foreign banks.

Reading the text, you'll note that there's nothing from the perspective of the workers involved. From my point of view, who gets the allocation from the penalty is beside the point – why is there a penalty in the first place? The idea that banks have to be compensated from the loss of trained and experienced staff doesn’t meet the smell test – practically no other industry in Malaysia does the same.

Gold To Rally To US$1500: Tell Me Why This Isn’t A Bubble

On Bloomberg today:

Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros’s Bubble Inflates

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Investors are accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.

Analysts raised their 2011 forecasts more than for any other precious metal the past two months, predicting a 10th annual advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The most widely held option on gold futures traded in New York is for $1,500 an ounce by December, or 18 percent more than the record $1,266.50 reached June 21. Holdings through bullion-backed exchange-traded products are already at more than 2,075 metric tons, within 0.1 percent of the all-time high.

“Either a swift economic recovery or further dismal economic performance should bring new buyers into the market,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt who was the most accurate forecaster in the first quarter and expects the metal to rise as high as $1,400 next year. “A stronger economy would create more jewelry demand. If the economy stays weak or gets worse, then investors will be looking for a safe haven.”

Investors added to their gold holdings through ETPs for three consecutive weeks, reflecting demand for assets typically favored in times of financial stress. Two-year Treasury yields fell to a record low of 0.4542 percent on Aug. 24 and the yen reached a 15-year high against the dollar the same day. Pacific Investment Management Co., Deutsche Bank AG and Citigroup Inc. have announced or are offering funds or traded instruments designed to guard against sudden market declines.

Global economy gets better – gold will rise; economy gets worse – gold will rise. More than anything, that hints to me that gold has outrun its market fundamentals. The only reason the gold price is rising is...because the gold price is rising. The fact that Soros’ fund is trimming their holdings suggests that they see a bubble end game looming, so buyer beware. This thing still has legs so we’re nowhere near the peak yet, but given the dramatic rise in the gold price, you would expect an equally dramatic fall.