Friday, November 4, 2011

September 2011 External Trade

September is one of those rare months when the numbers hit my forecast almost exactly, so forgive me for crowing a bit (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):


Not that its much comfort – export growth was as flat as an iPad2. If there is anything more to be positive about, it’s that E&E exports might be turning the corner (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted):


Growth in exports of E&E products were strongly positive for the first time since February 2011.

More importantly, import growth was also strong for the first time since March 2011. With the high import content in Malaysia’s exports, we might soon be looking at a decent start for 4Q trade.

Seasonally adjusted model


Point forecast:RM58,452m (6.1% yoy, -0.04% mom)

Range forecast:RM65,801m-51,103m


Seasonal difference model


Point forecast:RM60,124m (8.9% yoy, 2.4% mom)

Range forecast:RM68,624m-51,625m


Technical Notes:

September 2011 External Trade Report from MATRADE.

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