Friday, November 11, 2011

September 2011 Industrial Production: Turning Up

Yesterday’s IPI report shows some momentum building in the Malaysian economy as growth carried over from August (log annual and monthly changes; seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):



The only sour note came from mining output, which dropped on both annual and monthly growth measures, and dampened the overall increase in the IPI. Manufacturing showed some resilience though, even from the moribund electronics sector (log annual and monthly changes, seasonally adjusted; 2000=100):


These numbers underscore the recovery in 3Q output – my IPI based forecast of real GDP for 3Q 2011 just got bumped up from 5.5% to 5.6% in annual terms, and from 2.9% to 3.3% in quarterly terms (SAAR):


If growth continues at this pace into 4Q 2011, we’ll see total growth for the year handily beating 5.0%.

Technical Notes:

September 2011 Industrial Production Index report from the Department of Statistics.

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