Rethinking the Macroeconomics of Resource Rich Countries

VoxEU has a new e-book out on the way forward for commodity producing economies (excerpt):

Rethinking the macroeconomics of resource-rich countries: A new eBook
Rabah Arezki, Raouf Boucekkine, Jeffrey Frankel, Mohammed Laksaci, Rick van der Ploeg 24 April 2018

After years of high commodity prices, a new era of lower ones, especially for oil, seems likely to persist. This will be challenging for resource-rich countries, which must cope with the decline in income that accompanies the lower prices and the potential widening of internal and external imbalances. This column presents a new VOXEU eBook in which leading economists from academia and the public and private sector examine the shifting landscape in commodity markets and look at the exchange rate, monetary, and fiscal options policymakers have, as well as the role of finance, including sovereign wealth funds, and diversification.

It’s a compilation of papers from a 2016 conference, and to be honest, doesn’t really present anything ground-shakingly new on the subject. However, it does provide a convenient entree for those not familiar with the conduct of macro-policy in commodity producing countries (i.e. most Malaysians).

The article itself provides a short precis of the e-book, which you can download here.

Development Thinking Summarised

Stefan Dercon takes the top 10 thinkers (I actually counted 11…hmm, Nigel Tufnel anyone?) in development economics, and condenses each of their beliefs into one or two sentences (excerpt):

10 top thinkers on Development, summarized in 700 words by Stefan Dercon

One of the treats of my role at LSE is luring in some great development thinkers to lecture on Friday afternoons, andStefan Dercon then sitting in to enjoy the show. Stefan Dercon came in just before the Christmas break and was typically brilliant, witty and waspish. Particularly enjoyable from an outgoing DFID chief economist (as well as Prof at the Blavatnik School of Government and Director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies).

Stefan gave us a tour of the ‘Big Ideals, Big Egos and Big Thinkers in development’. Here they are, points for recognizing them. For the answers, go to the bottom of this post and see their books – extra point if you have read them all. He celebrated the quality of the books, the way they have brought development ideas to a mass audience, the impact they have had on the ‘public conversation’ around the way the world works. And then came a wonderful ‘digested read’ summary:

It's a very concise summary, and probably doesn't capture all the nuances of each perspective, but as a shorthand beginners introduction to the topic, this is hard to beat.

Growth in Context

Just a quick note:

Growth forecasts for the Malaysian economy have been undergoing upward revisions, given the strong 1Q2017 GDP numbers and the continuing strength of trade growth and retail sales. For example, the IMF has just upgraded their 2017 forecast for Malaysian GDP growth from 4.5% to 4.8%. The official government forecast of 4.3%-4.8% will also likely follow suit in the next month or so, probably around the ballpark of 5%.

One common refrain I’m hearing in all this is: the man on the street and the businessman in his office aren’t feeling it.

Current Account Confusion

This came out about a month ago, but the subject is important enough that it’s worth revisiting (excerpt):

The Malaysian economic indicator that is raising red flags

OF all the statistics trotted out to show the health of the economy, one indicator is causing some concern among economists, who said it spells trouble for every Malaysian over the long term.

The current account balance is a gauge for the state of the economy and if it goes into a deficit for an extended period, it affects everything from wages to the price of vegetables.

Malaysia’s current account balance still shows a surplus but the bad news is that it has been declining steadily from 2014.

ICYMI: Economic Growth Over The Very Long Run

I keep meaning to post on this topic, but what with work and all, it’s been on the back burner. In any case, I wrote an article published in the Star last week that covers the main points (excerpt):

Economic growth in an ageing world

MOST people take growth for granted. We expect living standards to increase over time and that our children will enjoy a better quality of life than us.

But growth is not a given and it is driven by economic processes that can and do change. There has been a gradual slowing in global growth over the past couple of decades, and some of this can be pinned on structural factors that form the very foundation of growth itself....

It’s partly secular stagnation, but more in the Hansen sense than in Summers new formulation, and over a larger scope than just what’s going on in developed economies.

Have a read and let me know what you think in the comments.

Dear God, I dearly hope I’m wrong on this.

11th Malaysia Plan: Quick Impressions

This was supposed to have come out a couple of weeks ago, but I ran out of time before leaving on a holiday. Just some quick thoughts on the 11MP:

1. Overall, the 11MP underscores the shift in the government’s strategy. There’s been a gradual but noticeable shift from boosting growth to labour and social issues in the last few years. This means potentially accepting a lower rate of growth to making sure that what growth we do get is more equitably shared.

Comparing Malaysia With Singapore

I probably shouldn’t bother, but from TMI (excerpt):

When the success of one nation casts shadows on the failures of another

...That Malaysia, with her bounty of natural and human resources, has failed miserably to keep up with Singapore is a sad reflection of the policies we’ve undertaken in the last 50 years. Where one has chosen unwavering pragmatism and a merit-based administrative policy to push its nation forward, the other is still proclaiming the supposed inherent superiority of one race over others.

Singapore is able now to move beyond focusing entirely on economic policy, to addressing problems such as social mobility and a rapidly ageing society to further better the quality of life of its citizens. Malaysia seems to be obsessed with proposing-debating-and-proposing-again the implementation of hudud, instead of fighting the deeply-rooted disease of corruption and inefficiency which leads to the billions of ringgit that slip out of our country’s coffers every year.

I hate repeating myself, but:

The Paradox Of Plenty

There’s this somewhat understandable idea that because Malaysia is rich in natural resources, we are…well, rich. Or at least we should be, if the government had handled things properly....

...But there’s a slight problem with this mindset – the empirical evidence suggests that natural resources alone do not beget wealth or prosperity, that focusing on developing such assets actually undermines the foundation of long term growth and prosperity. In fact, in development circles, it’s more common to speak of natural resources as a “curse”, not a blessing....

…In Malaysia’s case, it’s probably more pertinent – and accurate – to wonder not why we aren’t rich when we have abundant natural resources, but rather how Malaysia has managed to grow so far and so fast despite the handicap of having abundant natural resources.

In addition, three links on my series on corruption and growth (here, here and here), or if you want the whole series, you can start from here. From Part III of the series (excerpt):

The idea that corruption has a dampening effect on income levels and/or growth is intuitively appealing, yet the data doesn’t appear to support any causal relationship of any kind. In fact, the conclusion appears to be that the relationship is technically spurious – corruption affects neither the level or growth of income, nor does income affect the level or rate of corruption (or should I say, the perception of corruption).

The difference in growth between Singapore and Malaysia really boils down to volatile commodity prices before Malaysia’s economy was fully diversified beginning in the 1990s. There are a few other things, which I won’t get into right now.

Natural resources are not a blessing. Anybody who watched oil prices plunge last year can certainly attest to that. Long term, any country relying on natural resources is not on a path to prosperity.

The statement that Malaysia is “…staggering behind most of her Asian peers,” is sheer hyperbole. Since 1965, the only countries to have overtaken Malaysia in real GDP per capita in East Asia is Korea and Taiwan – despite the fact that both had had institutionalised corruption during their highest growth phases. This also ignores that we have been making steady gains on both, as well as against developed country standards, in the last decade.

Lastly, on the (de)merits of pure meritocracy, try here, here and here.

Malaysia Human Development Report 2013 [UPDATED]

I attended the launch yesterday, which included commentary by the authors, led by YBhg Tan Sri Kamal Salih, and a very lengthy panel discussion.

You can download the full copy here.

This has been a looong time coming as publication was held up for a year. though I’m not a liberty for revealing why. In any case, if you want the very short version, this video explains everything in 2 minutes and 34 seconds:

UPDATE:

Due to bandwidth limitations (too many people have tried to download the report), the MHDR site has been overwhelmed. You can try this alternative link instead to download the report. Warning: it’s a massive 66MB file, so the download could take a while.

Natural Resources and the Terms of Trade

I stumbled on this while looking for something else – the Singer-Prebisch thesis. What Singer and Prebisch found (separately and concurrently) is that the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures was declining over time. If true, this empirical observation has profound implications for economic development.

Let me explain that in English.

The terms of trade, put simply, is the amount of imports you can “buy” with one unit of exports. In other words, it measures the purchasing power of exports.

If your terms of trade are declining over time, you have to keep producing more and more just to be able to afford the same quantity and value of imports. But commodity production is subject to inelastic supply – it’s extremely difficult to continually ramp up production.

Potential Growth In ASEAN

From the latest round of IMF working papers (abstract):

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Rahul Anand ; Kevin C. Cheng ; Sidra Rehman ; Longmei Zhang

Summary: Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.

Why Spending RM160 Billion On Rail Isn’t Completely Bonkers

It’s last week’s news, but still relevant (excerpt):

Najib: An additional RM160bil to be invested in rail projects by 2020

KUALA LUMPUR: The Government is expected to spend an estimated RM160bil more on rail-related projects until 2020, said Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

The Prime Minister said the railroad industry had seen "massive expansion" in Asia and was becoming an increasingly significant mode in Malaysia's efforts to improve public transportation...

The Paradox Of Plenty

There’s this somewhat understandable idea that because Malaysia is rich in natural resources, we are…well, rich. Or at least we should be, if the government had handled things properly.

If only we could harness our reserves of oil and gas and minerals effectively and efficiently…

If only we had invested in and boosted the productivity of our agricultural sector…

If only we managed our forests and bio-diversity for sustainable development…

If only natural resource extraction wasn’t subject to leakages and corruption…

If only, if only…

But there’s a slight problem with this mindset – the empirical evidence suggests that natural resources alone do not beget wealth or prosperity, that focusing on developing such assets actually undermines the foundation of long term growth and prosperity. In fact, in development circles, it’s more common to speak of natural resources as a “curse”, not a blessing.

The Promise Of Economic Development: Convergence

Guess which is the fastest growing region in the world after East Asia? Would you believe Sub-Saharan Africa?

The “dark” continent isn’t as dark as its reputation (excerpt):

Africa: Second Fastest-Growing Region in the World
By Antoinette M. Sayeh

Sub-Saharan Africa is the second fastest-growing region of the world today, trailing only developing Asia. This is remarkable compared to the current complicated state of the global economy, with Europe still struggling and the United States slowly on the mend.

In 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa maintained solid growth, with output growth at 5 percent on average. The factors that have supported the region through the Great Recession—strong investment, favorable commodity prices, and generally prudent macroeconomic management—continued to be at play.

Solving The Problem Of Imported Low Cost Labour

While I don’t always fully agree with some of Mr Menon’s views, I think this article is spot on (excerpt; emphasis added):

Can the new members of ASEAN catch-up without domestic polarisation?
Jayant Menon

ASEAN is divided. So how many ASEANs are there? Most separate the newer, less developed members (such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam; known as CLMV) from the older ones (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; known as ASEAN6). As high-income countries, some would even put Singapore and Brunei in a separate, third category…

…In addition to market-oriented reforms, the fact that convergence is taking place should not be surprising. One reason to expect catch-up is the difference in the marginal efficiency of capital between poor and richer countries. With little access to capital, workers in poor countries have relatively low levels of productivity that can be raised substantially by increasing the amount of capital available to them by even small amounts…

Somebody FINALLY Writes A Decent Paper On The Middle Income Trap

I’ve been meaning to cover this since it landed in my inbox last week, but hadn’t found the time. But this new IMF working paper gets a big thumbs up from me (abstract):

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap
Aiyar, Shekhar and Duval, Romain; Puy, Damien; Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei

Summary: The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.

Network Externalities In Action

From the Beeb (excerpt):

The sweet sound of success

It is an amazing story of survival - a parable of how small businesses can use the old ways to make money, but then adapt and prosper down the generations.

Today, the quiet town of Markneukirchen, nestling in the mountains of eastern Germany near the Czech border, would be called an "economic cluster", a place where different companies combine in a close-knit single industry.

But when tradesman started making musical instruments in the town nearly four centuries ago, there was no fancy term for the way they were organised.

It was just the way they did things: violin-makers set up near manufacturers of bows, while the trombone workshop relied on the mouthpiece maker just up the street.

Today, the town and the valley around it have 113 different enterprises, all involved in making musical instruments. They rely on traditional methods, but utilise all the modern ways of connecting with far-away markets.

The 2012 National Report Cards

I missed the live televised speech yesterday, and haven’t yet had a chance to review either document, but you can download the annual reports via the links below:

1. Economic Transformation Programme
2. Government Transformation Programme

Bank Negara will be issuing their annual report later this afternoon, so any analysis and commentary will have to wait.

As for the other bit of sensational news yesterday, you can view the original here (both film and commentary).

Just one thing to bear in mind however: Global Witness are quoting the GFI numbers on illicit capital flows from Malaysia, but fail to note that 80% of these flows arise from trade mispricing i.e. non-corruption related (unless you count MNC tax avoidance strategies as corruption).

Growth And The Distribution Of Incomes

Pemandu CEO Idris Jala on inclusive growth (excerpt):

Transformation is not all about income only

TRANSFORMATION is not all about income. Yes, income is the key part and we put a lot of emphasis on and look at ways and means to increase that, but we are equally aware that income must reach everyone.

There must be inclusiveness in development that is, the drive towards achieving developed status by getting a per capita income of US$15,000 (RM46,795) a year by 2020 must include as many people as possible in that process.

The Economic Competence Of Politicians

Is it advantageous to have leaders and policymakers who are technically competent? As in having formal education in their area of responsibility? Would you expect a doctor to be Minister of Health and a public finance graduate in charge of the Treasury?

You’d think that this is a pretty dumb question – of course they should be. The funny thing is however is that most are not, and voters are quite happy to put them there.

Democracy And Natural Resources

In the popular imagination, democracy is the foundation for prosperity. Strong, trustworthy political and public institutions are a precondition for sustained economic growth and development. The empirical evidence however, is decidedly mixed – not a few studies find little to no evidence of a link, and some fund links going the other way i.e. income creates democracies but not the other way around.

This new working paper from the IMF partly explains why (abstract):

Income and Democracy: Lipset's Law Revisited
Hoeffler, Anke, and Bates, Robert H. & Fayad, Ghada

Summary: We revisit Lipset‘s law, which posits a positive and significant relationship between income and democracy. Using dynamic and heterogeneous panel data estimation techniques, we find a significant and negative relationship between income and democracy: higher/lower incomes per capita hinder/trigger democratization. Decomposing overall income per capita into its resource and non-resource components, we find that the coefficient on the latter is positive and significant while that on the former is significant but negative, indicating that the role of resource income is central to the result.