Showing posts with label miscellaneous. Show all posts
Showing posts with label miscellaneous. Show all posts

Friday, January 2, 2015

Happy New Year!

I’ve just come back from a two week break. It’s been a good time off, if not for the news of the flooding on the East coast and the Air Asia tragedy.

My resolution for this brand new year of 2015 is to recommit to blogging. I’ve been letting it slide over the past year because of work commitments, but I’m hoping to hit at least one blog post every working day from now on. To do that though, there’ll have to be some changes in my approach – it’ll have to be with much shorter pieces than I’ve done before, though I’m hoping to keep up with the data-centric style I’ve managed to sustain in this blog.

So you’ll probably be hearing much more from me from now on.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

The Mythmaking and Storytelling Of Economics

Noah Smith (@Noahpinion on Twitter) waxes lyrical on the culture of economics (excerpt):

Economics Isn't Science or Literature

…Economists use many of the same tools as scientists and engineers -- matrix algebra, multiple regression, control theory. But they don’t use them in the same way. In economics -- especially macroeconomics -- the goal is often to persuade other people of your point of view. As Federal Reserve economist Kartik Athreya writes in his 2013 book “Big Ideas in Macroeconomics”:

“My view is that a part of what we do is "organized storytelling, in which we use extremely systematic tools of data analysis and reasoning, sometimes along with more extra-economic means, to persuade others of the usefulness of our assumptions and, hence, of our conclusions...This is perhaps not how one might describe "hard sciences[.]”

Friday, May 30, 2014

World Cup Prediction: Brazil (natch)

These guys have waaaay too much time on their hands (excerpt):

World Cup 2014 Special
Brazil set to succeed on the pitch …but it’s an uphill battle for the economy

While there is not much to cheer about regarding the Brazilian economy, we believe the Brazilian population will at least be able to cheer about its national team’s result at the upcoming football World Cup.

In this document, we present our forecasts not only for the Brazilian economy but also for the outcome of the World Cup. We have estimated an econometric model for the World Cup result based on data from the five previous World Cup tournaments and used the model parameters to simulate the upcoming World Cup and the results are clear to us.

In our view, home advantage, a large population and a strong football tradition will ensure that Brazil wins the World Cup. We believe Argentina will be in the running but will lose to Brazil in the final. Germany will take third place.

However, chance is a major factor in football, so nothing is given – not even for Brazil. To describe these factors we have used so-called Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the probability of different teams winning the World Cup. Brazil is strong favourite, with our simulation indicating a 45% chance that Brazil will win the tournament. We calculate the runners up are much less likely to win, with Argentina having an 8.1% chance, Germany 7.6% and France 6.7%.

[H/T Lars Christensen]

Monday, May 19, 2014

My Rant Of The Day: Misusing The Word “Print”

The last few months I’ve been forced into reading a lot of analyst reports. While for the most part it’s been worthwhile in terms of gauging what other people are thinking, there’s something about these reports that just bugs the hell out of me.

And that is the use – or rather, misuse – of the word “print”.

This isn’t even a problem just with our local guys either, I see the word often used by foreign bank and broker analysts as well. As in, “the latest GDP print” or “compared to the 4Q2013 BOP print”.

From the context, these guys are using the word “print” as synonymous with “record” or “report”. But in English, “print” doesn’t carry the same meaning, connotation or usage as the latter two words. To me, a “print” is a reproduction of something, not the thing itself.

So when people refer to a report as a “print”, I have visions of them queuing up to get reports as they’re published, and fastidiously making reference to their own individual copies while writing out their commentaries. Since this isn’t what anybody actually does, referring to economic data as coming from a “print” makes me cringe. It’s as if the form of a report (a publication) is more important than the data it conveys (the actual numbers).

Here’s the link to the Merriam-Webster definition, and here’s the link for the Oxford Dictionaries definition.

Nowhere in those definitions is “print” used in a way that could denote a report or the content of a report – only the process by which it is made (verb) or the form it can take (noun). The image that I usually carry in my head, when using “print” as a noun, is the same definition used by New York’s Museum of Modern Art:

“A print is a work of art made up of ink on paper and existing in multiple examples. It is created not by drawing directly on paper , but through an indirect transfer process.”

The stuff I have hanging on my office wall are prints. The data and reports issued by national statistical authorities are NOT prints.

Unless you happen to think these are works of art.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Twitter, Finally

Yes, I finally took the plunge. And I’m half regretting it already, as it looks like a great way to waste time. FWIW, you can follow me (the link is on the right hand column of the page), but I make no promises to be too actively involved tweeting.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

A Belated Eid Mubarak; And I’m Back

I’ve been offline for more than a week now, but I’m back at work, refreshed and recharged. To all a happy holidays and Eid Mubarak to all muslimin and muslimah.

There’s quite a few topics that have come up over the past few weeks that I’ll have something to say on over the coming days, not least of which is the TPPA and Malaysia’s sovereign ratings. I’ve had quite a few emails asking about the former, plus attending MITI’s open day, so I’ll be writing what I think once I get my thoughts organised.

Monday, May 6, 2013

Back To Business

Now that the general election is over – pending, of course, the inevitable legal review – it’s time to get back to stuff that actually matters.

For the record, polling was peaceful, orderly and generally well conducted where I voted. The queues were a little long, especially for the higher numbered streams, but people mostly took this patiently in stride. EC officials kindly helped my mother into the station (she’s wheel-chair bound), jumping the queue in the process. That was a relief, especially in the mid-morning heat. Kudos to them.

I hope your election day was just as uneventful and peaceful, and I fervently pray it stays that way.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Facebook Problems

Facebook is giving me a headache – apparently none of my posts from the last five months have been posted to the Econsmalaysia wall.

It’s fixed now, so you should see all new posts coming through in the future. Unfortunately, if you’re following me only through Facebook, that’s five months worth of posts arriving all at once. Don’t worry, you haven’t missed much!

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Gong Xi Fa Chai

Happy holidays!

If you’re driving, stay patient and stay safe. May the year ahead be blessed and prosperous.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Messages on Facebook

For some reason, I haven’t been getting notifications about some messages on my Facebook page. For those who sent messages and never received a reply, my sincerest apologies.

Previously, I’ve rarely check the page directly, just relying on email notifications to alert me on messages and posts. That won’t happen again in future, and I’ll be doing a daily check whenever possible. If you post a query on the Facebook page but don’t get a reply within a day or two, please email me directly econsmalaysia@gmail.com instead.

Again, for those who’ve haven’t received a reply to their messages, my apologies.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

The Redskins Rule: First (Second) Failure

Well, most of the results are in and it appears that Obama has won a second term as the President of the US, and beaten the Redskins rule.

This is just the second time the Redskins rule has failed to predict the winner (the first was in 2004), though a previous modification to the rule might still be valid – that the Redskins rule predicts the popular vote, but not necessarily voting in the electoral college.

Whatever the case, I’m pretty happy with the result. Whatever his other virtues might have been, Romney as president would have likely have meant a more aggressive (and populist) US foreign and trade policy and worsening income inequality in the world’s biggest economy. Neither is to be wished for.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

FT Looking For Researchers

The UK based business paper the Financial Times is looking for a researcher to cover the Malaysian market:

The role will require candidates to analyse investment trends in their countries of coverage and be adept at handling and analysing data.

Candidates must write well, have an excellent command of English and be fluent in the local language in the city where they will be based. The successful candidates will be part of a small team and must be reliable and diligent. They must also show initiative and be able to work to tight deadlines.

Candidates who are passionate about economics and finance, and can write well are preferred. Salaries will be competitive.

If you’re interested, click through this link to apply. Deadline’s November 22 so you’d better hurry.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Newsflash: The Redskins Lost, So Probably Will Obama

Here’s a statistical oddity that has held mostly true over the past century – the result of the last home game of the Washington Redskins has been almost perfectly correlated with the outcome of the US Presidential election for the last 80 years.

If the Redskins won, the incumbent party has also won. If the Redskins lose, the challenging party won.

This weekend’s home game result? Carolina 21, Washington 13.

If the correlation runs true, I’m afraid the Obama experiment is over. Voting starts Tuesday in the US (Wednesday here in Malaysia).

Friday, October 26, 2012

Eid Mubarak

I’m on a break until Monday. To all Muslim brothers and sisters, Eid Mubarak, and for everyone else, have a good holiday. If you’re driving, stay patient and stay safe.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Selamat Hari Raya Eid el Adha

For all Muslims and Muslimah, Eid Mubarak. And for everyone else, have a safe holiday.

I’ll be travelling until Wednesday, so there won’t be any posts until after that.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Happy Deepavali

There might not be any posts until next week as I’ll be teaching on Thursday and Friday.

In the meantime, have a Happy Deepavali, and a safe holiday.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Rape: What You’re Wearing Doesn’t Matter

From the Mole yesterday (excerpt):

Activists riled with Nik Aziz's remarks

KUALA LUMPUR: A human rights activist today described Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat's remarks that women who did not cover their aurat should blame themselves if they were raped, as "an old man’s way of blaming the women when it’s the man who has the problem of controlling themselves.

Irene Fernandez was responding to a three-year-old video clip of the Kelantan Menteri Besar who during a campaign on the virtues of covering the aurat had said: “Dah dia buka aurat. Dirogol. Padanlah muka dirogol. Dia jual murah-murah. (She did not cover herself. She got raped. Serves her right. She made herself cheap).”

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Has Jeffrey Sachs Changed His Stripes?

They must be having snowball fights in hell (excerpt):

Paul Ryan, American Values and Corporatocracy

My new book, The Price of Civilization, describes why America needs a "mixed economy," one where a more effective federal government regulates business and invests alongside the business sector. In his review of my book, Congressman Paul Ryan, an avowed libertarian, describes my book as anti-American in its values. ...

Ryan ignores the extensive evidence in the book showing that Americans support the values of a mixed economy, not of Ryan's free-market libertarianism. Americans today by large majorities support public education, Medicare, Social Security, help for the indigent, stronger regulation of the banks, and higher taxation of the rich. ...

On issue after issue, Washington is presently bucking the public's values, rather than respecting them. A majority of the public wants to preserve social programs, but they are being cut anyway. A majority wants higher taxes on the rich, but they are being cut rather than raised. A majority wants to end the wars, but they continue anyway.

The reason is the following. America is losing its democracy as our politicians trade their votes for campaign contributions from the corporate lobbies. We have a corporatocracy rather than a democracy, and Ryan stands at the center of it. The Wall Street Journal, which commissioned Ryan's review of my book, is the leading print mouthpiece for the corporatocracy.

I don’t know enough of Prof Sachs and his work to be too judgemental, and I’m probably guilty of slandering the man. But this is the very same Jeffery Sachs who helped preside over the free market “shock therapy” in port-communist Eastern Europe that resulted in a decade of de facto corporate kleptocracy and massive welfare loss for common citizens. The fact that he’s now advocating a mixed economy strategy a’la Dani Rodrik seems incredibly ironic, to put it mildly.

(via Mark Thoma)

Friday, September 30, 2011

I’m On Facebook

I’ve just added a Facebook page for the blog – though I have only a vague idea of what I’m going to do with it or how I’m going to discriminate between that and the blog proper. My idea is to have most of the media coverage to shift there, as that usually doesn’t require much in the way of data support or graphs. The blog in the meantime would concentrate mainly on wonkish stuff.

Let me know in the comments if there’s anything different I ought to be doing here.

Twitter? One thing at a time!