Minimum Wage Revised Part IV: Poor SMEs

I'm going to dive deeper into this topic, because there are a number of inter-related issues that need to be highlighted. The data here comes from the 2016 Economic Census, cross referenced with the subsidiary report on SMEs from the same survey.

Before jumping into how an RM1,500 minimum wage might impact SMEs, let me digress into a discussion of the nature of the capital share of GDP.

The 2020 split on the share of GDP was 37.2% labour and 60.1% capital (the residual is taxes and subsidies). This of course has given rise to accusations of greedy capitalists, which is (a little) unfair. Yes, the capital share in Malaysia is high by developed country standards, but its not out of line with other emerging markets. More importantly, the capital share is not the same thing as the share of income going to the business owner/shareholders.

Minimum Wage Revised Part III: What's the appropriate level?

Despite the government determining the minimum wage to be hiked to RM1,500 by May 1, 2022, there's still debate on whether the timing/quantum of the increase is appropriate. This is partly acknowledged by the government itself, with the qualification that it will not apply to micro enterprises with less than 5 employees.

So what's really appropriate? What's the safe level of minimum wage that will uplift low incomes while preserving employment?

Minimum Wage Revised Part II: Some Evidence on Wages

Part I dealt with some of the criticisms of the minimum wage. Part II here will look at some of the data around the impact on wages and prices. For a look at the impact on employment, see this old post.

How do wages react to an increase in the minimum wage? To try to answer this question, I'll use some estimates from the EPF on wages at various parts of the distribution. To my knowledge, I've only shown this particular data in public just once before, and that was many years ago. Since then there has been multiple revisions of Malaysia's minimum wage, with varying results at least in terms of boosting wages, as you shall see.

Minimum Wage Revised Part I: Theoretical Considerations

So the government has finally announced a new revision to Malaysia's minimum wage, two years after the last one. This time though, it's a whopping 25% increase to RM1,500, from the RM1,200 in 2020. Even after all these years (nine to be exact), the minimum wage continues to be the subject of a lot of arguments, so I thought I'd lay out some of the theory and Malaysian evidence (such as it is).

First of all, what we learned in Econ 101 is that when you establish a price above that of the market determined price, quantity supplied increases while quantity demanded decreases, and the market does not clear. In the context of labour, this implies higher unemployment, as more people are willing to work, but less employers can afford to take them on. But in empirical studies, this generally does not happen with the minimum wage. Why?

The First 100 Days

I’ve had multiple requests to comment on this, but haven’t had the time. To be honest, I didn’t read either side’s political manifesto too closely, as most election promises are so hedged with operational realities that the likelihood of full implementation was never going to be very high, when political idealism meets unyielding economic realities. However, now that we have some clarity on the direction forward, it’s time to seriously assess Pakatan Harapan’s manifesto.

I won’t go over the whole thing, just the 10 items that were promised for the first 100 days, and even then only those that are economics related. So, no comment on investigating scandals or the stature of Sabah and Sarawak.

Raising the Minimum Wage

I was going to keep this for Monday, but this is too timely (excerpt):

Be Careful When Raising Minimum Wages
By Noah Smith

Minimum wages are one of the most contentious topics in economic policy. Many states and cities are experimenting with big minimum wage increases, so that there is now a lot of variation across the country...

...To many in the news media and in the world of think tanks and activists, being pro- or anti-minimum wage is akin to a religious belief. But even in the world of economics research, there’s plenty of disagreement.

A slew of recent minimum-wage studies illustrate the point...

It’s important to remember that these studies are all very limited. Some of them, like the Leamer et al. and the Allegretto et al. studies, are preliminary and subject to change once the final analysis is concluded. The studies that use synthetic controls -- Jardim et al. and Allegretto et al. -- could be wrong if they’ve chosen the wrong controls, which is easy to do. The method used by Cengiz et al. requires its own set of assumptions, which could be wrong.

At this point, anyone following the research debate will be tempted to throw up their hands. What can we learn from a bunch of contradictory studies, each with its own potential weaknesses and flaws? Some extreme cynics even see the contradictory minimum wage results as reason to doubt the usefulness of empirical economics itself.

But this is the wrong response. The right reaction to the contradictory studies is caution. Policy makers and advisers should read the whole literature, including studies that yield conclusions they don’t like. They should try to get a picture of which research methods are considered the most reliable, and why. And then they should move forward cautiously with policy, taking steps to try to help the poor, but not making the steps so big and bold that they can’t be reversed if things go wrong.

In the case of minimum wages, a majority of the evidence seems to indicate that raising the wage floor by modest amounts isn't very dangerous. That means that experiments like the ones now underway in places like Seattle should continue. But the studies showing larger harm from minimum wages boosts should be a reason not to make the increases too large or abrupt, and not to implement big hikes at the federal level. To borrow a phrase from Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, the right approach is to “cross the river by feeling the stones.”

I'm generally supportive of the notion that the minimum wage is a necessary tool for addressing labour market imperfections and wage inequality. But there's also such a thing as pushing something too far, too fast.

One key problem with the Malaysian labour market is that, unlike in developed countries, a significant portion of the labour force is in the informal sector, where the minimum wage won’t apply and can’t be enforced. In other words, it’s not a silver bullet for the problem of low incomes. A second issue is that, in my own delvings into the impact of the minimum wage in Malaysia, the disemployment impact was statistically significant i.e. it cost jobs, even if the overall welfare benefits outweighed those job losses. So there is a very real trade-off involved. Third, the most recent minimum wage revision showed no impact at all on wages in proximity to the minimum wage level, i.e. zero welfare gains.

So the fact that Malaysia has a minimum wage at all is a positive, but let’s not get too carried away that it’s any kind of total solution. It isn’t.

Thoughts on Alternative Budget 2018

So, I’ve finally sat down to read through Pakatan Harapan’s alternative budget for 2018. There are some good ideas here, and a fair share of bad ones, but no more than expected. The numbers are bonkers, but I expected that since this is more a political manifesto than a real fiscal document. I’ll give most of it a pass except the more egregious ones, and like many, I note that some of the policy objectives and prescriptions are contradictory. At least one proposal has me upset, but I’ll leave that for the very last.

Can the (overall) numbers be achieved? I’d say yes. If the government really wanted to, they could go with a balanced budget tomorrow. But I think it would involve as much cutting the provision of public goods and services, as it would be some putative “savings'” from reducing corruption and improving governance. I’m sceptical that there’s that much savings to be had from that source.

Seattle’s Minimum Wage Experiment

This paper caused a stir in the economics community in the past couple of weeks (abstract):

Minimum Wage Increases, Wages, and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle
Ekaterina Jardim, Mark C. Long, Robert Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob Vigdor, Hilary Wething

This paper evaluates the wage, employment, and hours effects of the first and second phase-in of the Seattle Minimum Wage Ordinance, which raised the minimum wage from $9.47 to $11 per hour in 2015 and to $13 per hour in 2016. Using a variety of methods to analyze employment in all sectors paying below a specified real hourly rate, we conclude that the second wage increase to $13 reduced hours worked in low-wage jobs by around 9 percent, while hourly wages in such jobs increased by around 3 percent. Consequently, total payroll fell for such jobs, implying that the minimum wage ordinance lowered low-wage employees’ earnings by an average of $125 per month in 2016. Evidence attributes more modest effects to the first wage increase. We estimate an effect of zero when analyzing employment in the restaurant industry at all wage levels, comparable to many prior studies.

Thinking About Labour Markets: Partial Equilibrium Fallacies

I think by this time we all know that empirically, a minimum wage doesn’t seem to have the negative effect on employment that conventional economic analysis says it does. The reason for that is the Econ 101 standby of analysing policy changes based on ceteris paribus – a partial equilibrium approach. Holding everything constant and changing just one variable is a very useful way of thinking about economic issues, but it risks missing out on real world implications when you forget that economic systems are, in fact, actually systems.

Minimum Wage Review

It’s been two years since the implementation of Malaysia’s minimum wage policy, and it’s now up for review (excerpt):

Review on minimum wage policy

THE minimum wage policy is up for a scheduled review this year and the trade unions are asking the Government to increase the current floor of RM900 a month by 30% to RM1,200….

…Minister in the Prime Minister’s De­p­artment Datuk Seri Abdul Wahid Omar said in September last year that the Government is loooking at gradually increasing the ratio of wages to gross domestic product (GDP) from 33.6% in 2013 to 40% in the long term.

The Minimum Wage In South Africa

From a recent post on the World Bank’s Future Development Blog (excerpt):

A Tale of Two Impacts: Minimum Wage Outcomes in South Africa
Haroon Bhorat

…The evidence for South Africa, some twenty years after the demise of apartheid, is equally compelling. In a two-part study, my co-authors and I find an intriguing set of contrasting economic outcomes, from the imposition of a series of sectoral minimum wage laws….Currently, the economy has in place 11 such sectoral minimum wage laws in sectors ranging from Agriculture and Domestic Work, to Retail and Private Security….

Minimum Wage Portal

The Ministry of Human Resources has launched a portal for the Malaysia’s Minimum Wage, providing FAQs and info for employers and employees. You can access it here.

Minimum Wage: Preliminary Impact Assessment (Warning: another long and wonkish post)

It’s been nearly a year since Malaysia’s minimum wage law came into effect. Although enforcement has been held off until next year from the loads of companies applying for a postponement, most have already complied.

So here’s my crack at trying to figure out what the minimum wage’s impact on Malaysian employment, unemployment and incomes. Most of this material is taken from a presentation I gave at UTAR earlier this week.

The Impact Of The Minimum Wage

We’re a few months into Malaysia’s experiment with a minimum wage, and there’s we’re already seeing some effects, at least for the manufacturing sector:

Monopsony In Labour Markets

I once characterised employer hiring as similar to a monopsonistic market – I’m somewhat chuffed that I’m hardly alone in thinking that way (excerpt):

Where's the monopsony?

...There is in economic theory a set of circumstances, however, under which an increase in the minimum wage might raise employment. If an employer has a market largely to itself--if it has monopsony power--then it will both pay its workers less than their productivity warrants and not hire enough workers to be at the most efficient level of employment. Raising the minimum wage would then both increase pay and induce more workers into the labor market, hence increasing employment. If government could nail the minimum wage to the marginal revenue product of the least productive workers, the minimum wage could produce a first-best outcome--one where pay and employment levels were efficient.

For the argument to work, the demand for labor needn't be perfectly monopsonistic, but rather less than perfectly competitive. The fact that wages and labor productivity seem to have less and less to do with each other is evidence that the demand for labor is not competitive, but it would be nice to have further, detailed evidence of the industrial organization of labor demand.

Happy Belated New Year! And Welcome To The Minimum Wage

I’ve been on an extended break from blogging, what the holidays and all, and just as importantly, from a lack of issues to really talk about.

But I suspect that will change this year, as we get closer to the deadline for the general election and all that entails.

In the meantime, Malaysia’s minimum wage regulation came into effect on the 1st, and it’ll be interesting to see what kind of impact it really has – there’s been a bevy of companies, largely smaller SMEs who’ve already been granted exemptions until the middle of the year.

Inflation? Unemployment? We’re about to find out. I suspect any effect would be minor in aggregate, though no less real to the ones most affected. For the academics out there, here’s a prime opportunity for research grants a couple of years down the road.

Minimum Wage Around The World

Reading this article this morning, I have to wonder just how people get their information (extract; emphasis added):

Unfair to implement minimum wage policy in Terengganu, say groups

KUALA TERENGGANU: Trade organisations in Terengganu have asked to be exempted from the planned minimum wage ruling.

They argue that the cost of living in the state is comparatively lower than in the more advanced states like the Federal Territory and Johor and so, the RM900 minimum wage would not be justified here…

…Speaking at a press conference here yesterday on behalf of the organisations, Terengganu Chinese Chamber of Commerce president Datuk Low Kian Chuan urged the Government to review the policy and study its effects on small traders and companies…

…He added that in China, only selected regions had implemented such a policy while in European countries, minimum wage was unheard of.

China operates a local level not national implementation of a minimum wage – you can check the list of provinces and their minimum wage rates through Wikipedia. By my count (cross checked against the list of provinces here), that’s pretty much all of them, not a select few.

In the European Union, 18 out 27 countries have a minimum wage law. The rest typically set wages through collective bargaining agreements, making a minimum wage regulation largely unnecessary. I think on the whole, they might have heard of a minimum wage policy in Europe.

It’s actually much harder to find a country that doesn’t have some form of minimum wage regulation, than to find one that does. Again, Wikipedia to the rescue.

A Foreign Perspective On The Minimum Wage

On the Beeb:

Concern from Asian businesses over minimum wage

Many countries across the globe are celebrating International Workers' Day on 1 May.

In many parts of Asia, governments, workers and unions are using the day to ask what is a fair day's wage for a fair day's work?

Malaysia has just announced its first minimum wage for private sector workers. Thailand, China and Indonesia are also mulling minimum wage plans.

But whilst this is good news for workers, there are fears that a compulsory minimum wage could lead to Asia losing its competitive edge.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays Capital explained the motivation behind Malaysia's wage initiative to the BBC's Rico Hizon.

The video can’t be embedded, so hit the link above to view the interview. Here’s a couple more article links from the BBC:

1. Malaysia introduces minimum wage for the first time
2. Malaysian business' labour dilemma

Minimum Wage: It’s Finally Done

Announced last night:

PM: Minimum monthly wage is RM900

PUTRAJAYA: The minimum monthly wage for private sector employees in the Peninsular has been set at RM900 and RM800 for those in Sarawak, Sabah and Labuan, said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak on Monday.

It covers employees in all economic sectors except those in the domestic service sector, such as maids and gardeners.

It works out to RM4.33 per hour for those in the Peninsular while employees in Sarawak, Sabah and Federal Territory of Labuan are to be paid a minimum of RM3.85 per hour...

Nomura On Malaysia’s Minimum Wage

In the Star today (excerpt):

Implications of minimum wage

Dramatic rise in wages poses upside risk to inflation…

…The minimum wage is likely to be set anywhere between RM800 to RM1,000 per month. If we assume RM1,000, this would imply a significant 17% rise in the wages of unskilled workers, which according to Malaysia's Employers Federation 2010 Salary Survey, are earning an average RM852 a month.

To put this in perspective, it compares with the average increase of wages in the manufacturing sector of only 6% per year.

This poses an upside risk to inflation, in our view. First, overall labour productivity growth, which has been slowing in the last few years to an average of 2.7% (versus 5.3% pre-1998), is likely to substantially lag the potential increase in minimum wages, resulting in a rise in unit labour costs.